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Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1554Z Mar 23, 2015)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1154 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

VALID 12Z THU MAR 26 2015 - 12Z MON MAR 30 2015

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST SEEMED TO BE ON-TRACK---WITH SYSTEM
MIGRATING FROM SOUTHERN ROCKIES DAY 1 TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
DAY 4---USHERING IN A COLDER BUT DRIER CANADIAN AIRMASS EAST OF
THE DIVIDE. UPSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL LIKELY
CONTAIN A CUTOFF SYSTEM---APPROACHING 130W AROUND DAY 5. BY DAY
7---ADDITIONAL PACIFIC ENERGY SWEEPS THE REMNANT CUTOFF INLAND.

THOUGHT A BLEND OF THE 23/00Z ECENS-DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND THE
NAEFS WORKS THROUGH DAY 5---WITH LESS DETERMINISTIC INPUT AFTER
29/00Z TO COVER THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THE
EQUATOR-WARD SPREAD OF CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

VOJTESAK

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

WAVY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD
INITIALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME BANDS OF ENHANCED RNFL... MOST
LIKELY FROM THE OH VLY NEWD AND A LITTLE LATER OVER THE FL
PENINSULA.  SNOW ON THU SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE UPR MS VLY/UPR
GRTLKS BUT EXPECT WINTRY PCPN POTENTIAL TO SHIFT SEWD WITH TIME AS
COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE EAST.  LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE ADDED FOCUS FRI-SAT FROM OH VLY INTO THE SRN
HALF OF THE APLCHNS/SRN MID ATLC.  UPSTREAM SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD
FROM CANADA SHOULD SPREAD AN AREA OF SNOW N/RAIN S FROM THE NERN
TIER ACROSS THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE LOWER 48.  ANY WRN CONUS PCPN
SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE LGT SIDE... INCLUDING ACTIVITY OVER/NEAR
THE NRN-CNTRL ROCKIES THU-FRI AND WITH ANY MSTR THAT COULD REACH
THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.  CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER IS MODERATE
AT BEST GIVEN DEPENDENCE ON A COMPACT UPR LOW THAT IS TYPICALLY
CHALLENGING TO FCST.

THE AMPLIFIED MEAN PATTERN ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A CONTRAST IN TEMPS.
 EAST COAST WARMTH ON THU WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BROAD AREA OF
HIGHS 10-20F BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS FRI-SAT
WITH SOME MODERATION THEREAFTER.  ON THE OTHER HAND A MAJORITY OF
THE WRN CONUS SHOULD SEE MULTIPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS 10-25F ABOVE
NORMAL WITH SOME LOCATIONS PSBLY REACHING DAILY RECORD VALUES. 
SOME OF THE WARM AIR OVER THE WEST SHOULD EXTEND INTO PARTS OF THE
NRN-CNTRL PLAINS BY SAT.

RAUSCH