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Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1453Z Aug 18, 2014)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1053 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

VALID 12Z THU AUG 21 2014 - 12Z MON AUG 25 2014


...HEAT TRIES TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH...

DURING THE FOURTH WEEK OF AUGUST, SUMMER WILL TRY TO PRODUCE
SOMETHING IT HAS BEEN SHORT ON THIS YEAR EAST OF THE ROCKIES:
HEAT. A BLOCKY PATCHWORK OF UPPER HIGHS AND LOWS WILL LOCK IN
VARIOUS REGIMES ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE--WITH
HOT, DRY CONDITIONS IN THE CENTRAL SOUTH, AND COOL, SHOWERY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
HIGHS SHOULD TOUCH THE CENTURY MARK IN TEXAS, OKLAHOMA, KANSAS,
MISSOURI, AND ARKANSAS WHERE THE STILL-CONSIDERABLE LATE AUGUST
SUN HAS FEW CLOUDS OR RECENTLY-WET SOIL WITH WHICH TO COMPETE.

A VERY SHARP FRONT WILL DEFINE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAT, WITH
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY KEEPING PARTS OF
THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE SAME
WILL BE TRUE FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE A
VIGOROUS BACK DOOR FRONT IS PROGGED TO KNIFE ALL THE WAY THROUGH
GEORGIA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.

ENERGY CRESTING THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL KNOCK SOME OF
THE AMPLITUDE OUT OF THE MONSOON, THOUGH STILL EXPECT A HEALTHY
DOUSING TOWARDS OLD MEXICO.

THE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS OPERATIONAL MODELS IS GREAT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE THE USE OF ANY ONE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION, SO RELIED
MOSTLY ON THE ECENS AND NAEFS MEANS FOR THIS FORECAST.


CISCO