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Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0700Z Mar 01, 2015)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 12Z WED MAR 04 2015 - 12Z SUN MAR 08 2015

...GUIDANCE ASSESSMENT AND PATTERN/SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FAR SOUTHWARD PLUNGE OF A
VERY COLD LOWER ATMOSPHERIC AIRMASS WITH RECORD TEMP POTENTIAL
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SNOWS OVER THE S-CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS AS AIDED BY UPSLOPE FETCH THAT LINGERS PAST MIDWEEK. THIS
OCCURS WITH NRN/SRN STREAM INTERACTION/PHASING AS IMPULSES DIG TO
THE LEE OF A AMPLIFIED ERN PAC/AK RIDGE. THIS LEADS INTO AN
OVERALL TRANSLATION OF A MAIN TROUGH ALOFT AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING WELL OVER THE S-CENTRAL THEN ERN STATES
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT A LEAD AND WAVY FRONT WILL
POOL MOISTURE AND FOCUS A POTENTIALLY LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE TO
HEAVIER PCPN ACROSS THE CENTRAL THEN ERN US BOTH IN ADVANCE OF THE
BOUNDARY AND ALSO WRAPPING BACK INTO THE TRAILING/MERGING ARCTIC
AIRMASS...ALL WITH QUITE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET
SUPPORT. THIS OFFERS YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD WINTER
PCPN THREAT ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE OVERALL PCPN SHIELD ALONG
WITH SOME HEAVY WARM SECTOR RAINS WITH INCREASED GULF INFLOW.


THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH
BOTH THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THE WEATHER FEATURES IN THIS NOW
DAY 3/4 TIME FRAME. STILL PREFER A SOLUTION ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED
AND LESS PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF THE FULL ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS
CONSIDERING UPSTREAM FLOW AMPLITUDE.


THIS COMPATABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST APPROACH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WORK WELL AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE BENIGN AND DRY FOR MUCH OF
THE NATION FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST PERIOD LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

SCHICHTEL