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Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0458Z Oct 19, 2014)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1258 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VALID 12Z WED OCT 22 2014 - 12Z SUN OCT 26 2014


...HEAVY RAINS ON THE EDGES OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES...

THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SPLIT,
BLOCKY FLOW AT THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL LEAD TO REPETITIOUS
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NATION. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE
SIGNAL FOR MULTI-DAY, HEAVY RAINFALL IN WESTERN WASHINGTON, NEW
ENGLAND, AND EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA. USED THE STABLE EUROPEAN
CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN AS A GUIDE THIS FORECAST, THOUGH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS FROM THE OTHER MODELING CENTERS HAVE FINALLY COME AROUND TO
THE FLORID CONVOLUTIONS IN THE FLOW. THE RAINFALL IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BE COURTESY OF PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLIES--IN THE
NORTHEAST VIA THE LARGE, STACKED VORTEX SETTLING JUST
OFFSHORE--AND IN SOUTH FLORIDA RESULTING FROM DEEP-LAYER, TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE POLAR FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE STRAITS. 


CISCO