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Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1544Z Apr 11, 2014)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1144 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014

VALID 12Z MON APR 14 2014 - 12Z FRI APR 18 2014


...MAJOR SPRING STORM FROM THE MISSISSIPPI TO THE EAST COAST...

THE IMPORTANT SYNOPTIC DETAILS CONTINUE TO BECOME CLEARER WITH
EACH NEW DATA CYCLE REGARDING THE SHARP, HIGHLY ENERGETIC FRONTAL
COMPLEX CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RELIED ON THE 00Z/11 ECENS AND NAEFS MEANS AS SYNOPTIC
TEMPLATES, MANUALLY TIGHTENING GRADIENTS AND ADDING LARGER
MESOSCALE FEATURES WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHER. RELIANCE ON ANY
ONE OPERATIONAL MODEL WOULD EXCLUDE IMPORTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER
THREATS FOR DIFFERENT AREAS, SO KEPT AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH. A
MYRIAD OF HAZARDS ARE INDICATED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM--INCLUDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTH, TORRENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN
THE WARM SECTOR, HEAVY SNOWS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES, AND DAMAGING GRADIENT WINDS. ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING
ASPECTS OF THE WHOLE EVENT CONTINUES TO BE WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW
FALLS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT IN THE EAST. MANY ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS--AS WELL AS A FEW OPERATIONAL MODELS--SHOW SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ASTRIDE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS, WITH EVEN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO NEW ENGLAND
APPARENTLY NOT OUT OF THE SNOW WOODS YET THIS PROTRACTED COLD
SEASON.

THE BLOCKY, SLOW-MOVING FLOW SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST TWO FOCUSED
WAVES TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE ONCE
THE EASTERN SYSTEM IS FAR ENOUGH OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE
SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS HIGH AND DRY.


CISCO