Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Air Quality
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0432Z Nov 27, 2014)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1132 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VALID 12Z SUN NOV 30 2014 - 12Z THU DEC 04 2014


...HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR CALIFORNIA...


USED THE MOST RECENT EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN AS A SYNOPTIC
BASE AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. NONE OF THE ENSEMBLE SUITES OF THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAVE PROVEN PARTICULARLY ACCURATE OR STABLE, WITH THE
ECENS MEAN THE LEAST VOLATILE. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS, OF COURSE,
HAVE BEEN EVEN MORE SUBJECT TO THE WHIPLASH CHANGES THAT HAVE COME
WITH EACH NEW DATA CYCLE. SEVERAL DAYS AGO, WHAT IS NOW DAY
3--SUNDAY--WAS SUPPOSED TO FEATURE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST, AND CHINOOK CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. NOW, THE EAST IS TO BE AWASH IN MILD, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW,
WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UNDER AN ARCTIC HIGH.

THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF THE TROUGH COMING INTO CALIFORNIA AT THE MEDIUM RANGE,
THE MESSAGE OF HIGH POPS AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW HAS
REMAINED THE SAME. MUCH OF THE WEST WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS PERIOD,
THOUGH CALIFORNIA SHOULD WEAR THE WET CROWN.


CISCO