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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0838Z Apr 20, 2014)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 438 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2014 Valid 12Z Sun Apr 20 2014 - 12Z Tue Apr 22 2014 ...Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will finally wind down... ...Severe thunderstorms will be possible across West and Central Texas through late Monday... The configuration of the upper jet will continue to be split in nature which will feature an active southern and northern stream. Such a setup is forecast to persist through early next week before a much higher amplitude pattern evolves thereafter. The current state of the atmosphere consists of a strong closed low along the Carolina coast which has been responsible for a multi-day heavy rainfall event. With the best moisture content now over the offshore waters, the event has finally begun to wind down with scattered activity expected along the coastal Carolinas on Easter Sunday. Another disturbance within the active southern stream has helped foster the growth of numerous showers and thunderstorms across the Four Corners region and Southern Plains. Some of the more organized convection should spawn along a north to south oriented trof extending through West/Central Texas. Given sufficient daytime heating across the Lone Star state, the atmosphere should be rather unstable which may lead to the development of some severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center outlook suggests this is the case with severe weather possible on Sunday in the vicinity of Lubbock and Midland, Texas with the threat moving into Central Texas by the following day. The northern branch of the upper jet will also be a key contributor to the weather during the next couple of days. An upper trof currently skirting the Upper Intermountain West will continue sliding eastward with minimal change in intensity expected. While the wintry precipitation will be locked to locations north of the international border with Canada, the system should be an active rain producer. Low-level convergence along the approaching cold front will aid in the development of numerous showers and thunderstorms across the middle of the country. All of this activity is forecast to slide eastward reaching the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by late Monday to early Tuesday. The upper pattern will become much more amplified by the time Monday evening arrives with a deep upper trof just offshore of the West Coast. Onshore flow combined with frontal and orographic lift will help spread widespread precipitation from Northern California up into the Pacific Northwest. Through Tuesday morning, the WPC winter weather desk is advertising around 2 to 4 inches of snow across the Oregon Cascades. With regard to temperatures, it should be rather mild across the middle of the U.S. Persistent southerly flow pushing into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest will raise the mercury well into the 70s on Sunday. A drop in the temperatures is expected by early next week once the cold front passes through but readings should still hold steady in the upper 50s/lower 60s. Rubin-Oster Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php