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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0643Z Oct 22, 2014)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 243 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014 Valid 12Z Wed Oct 22 2014 - 12Z Fri Oct 24 2014 ...Heavy rains lie ahead for the Northwest, Northeast, and Florida Keys... Heavy precipitation continues along the Nation's fringes over the next couple days. Across the Northwest, strong onshore flow imports moisture from the Pacific which becomes wrung out by the mountains across the Pacific Northwest and the northern Continental Divide. By Friday morning, increased ridging aloft across the region should be causing the precipitation to fade in intensity. Rainfall totals through late Friday are expected to be in the 5-8" range per the WPC precipitation forecast, with locally higher amounts possible. This magnitude of rainfall could lead to flash flooding. Any snowfall should be confined to the highest elevations of the Cascades. Thunderstorms with moderate rainfall are expected near and ahead of a weakening frontal zone moving across the Plains/Midwest. The system will not be able to lure much Gulf moisture due to the circulation around a larger cyclone near the Northeast, which should limit rainfall magnitude. Across the Northeast, a deepening occluded cyclone sends comma head-related heavy rain/thunderstorms across the region into early Friday. Later on Friday, the cyclone pulls away from the region which should reduce rainfall coverage and intensity. The WPC precipitation forecast advertises 3-5" of rainfall across New England through late Friday, with locally higher total possible. This magnitude of precipitation could lead to flash flooding. Across southern Florida and the Keys, thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rainfall continue as the circulation and feeder bands around Tropical Depression Nine intersect a stationary front to its east-northeast. Rainfall amounts on the order of 3" are expected into late Friday, with locally heavier amounts expected. This degree of rainfall across the urban Keys could lead to flash flooding. See National Hurricane Center advisories for the latest information of Tropical Depression Nine. Roth Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php