Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 22 2014 - 12Z Fri Oct 24 2014
...Heavy rains lie ahead for the Northwest, Northeast, and Florida Keys...
Heavy precipitation continues along the Nation's fringes over the next
couple days. Across the Northwest, strong onshore flow imports moisture
from the Pacific which becomes wrung out by the mountains across the
Pacific Northwest and the northern Continental Divide. By Friday morning,
increased ridging aloft across the region should be causing the
precipitation to fade in intensity. Rainfall totals through late Friday
are expected to be in the 5-8" range per the WPC precipitation forecast,
with locally higher amounts possible. This magnitude of rainfall could
lead to flash flooding. Any snowfall should be confined to the highest
elevations of the Cascades.
Thunderstorms with moderate rainfall are expected near and ahead of a
weakening frontal zone moving across the Plains/Midwest. The system will
not be able to lure much Gulf moisture due to the circulation around a
larger cyclone near the Northeast, which should limit rainfall magnitude.
Across the Northeast, a deepening occluded cyclone sends comma
head-related heavy rain/thunderstorms across the region into early Friday.
Later on Friday, the cyclone pulls away from the region which should
reduce rainfall coverage and intensity. The WPC precipitation forecast
advertises 3-5" of rainfall across New England through late Friday, with
locally higher total possible. This magnitude of precipitation could lead
to flash flooding.
Across southern Florida and the Keys, thunderstorms with moderate to heavy
rainfall continue as the circulation and feeder bands around Tropical
Depression Nine intersect a stationary front to its east-northeast.
Rainfall amounts on the order of 3" are expected into late Friday, with
locally heavier amounts expected. This degree of rainfall across the
urban Keys could lead to flash flooding. See National Hurricane Center
advisories for the latest information of Tropical Depression Nine.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php