Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
413 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014
Valid 12Z Thu Aug 28 2014 - 12Z Sat Aug 30 2014
...The flash flood threat is expected to shift from the Central Plains to
the Upper Midwest on Thursday and into Friday...
The main event to speak of this forecast period will be the heavy rain
expected to shift from the Central Plains today and into the Upper Midwest
by Friday. An upper level trough ejecting into the Central Plains will
continue to produce an expansive area of showers and thunderstorms from
the Plains to the Great Lakes. The heaviest and most organized of the
convective activity should congregate ahead of the upper trough and around
a surface low slowly lifting northeastward into the Upper Great Lakes.
Strong thunderstorms, with embedded heavy rains, are forecast to move from
the Central Plains this morning, across the Upper and Middle Mississippi
Valley throughout the day, and into the Upper Midwest by tomorrow morning.
As a result, WPC has highlighted a slight to moderate risk for flash
flooding spanning the Central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Thursday and
Meanwhile, weak tropical energy moving westward into southern Texas may
bring some mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms to portions of the
western Gulf Coast states, but the heaviest of the rain should remain
offshore. Towards the end of the forecast period, a patch of upper level
energy ahead of the main trough to the west could expand some of the
precipitation into portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast states
as well. Elsewhere, a cold front dropping in from central Canada may
trigger a few showers or storms across the Northern Rockies on Friday, but
should remain isolated in nature since the energy and moisture associated
with this system appears rather weak.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php