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Short Range Public Discussion
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0827Z Sep 19, 2014)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 427 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014 Valid 12Z Fri Sep 19 2014 - 12Z Sun Sep 21 2014 ...Flash Flood watches remain in effect for portions of Texas and southeast New Mexico... Today and tonight, tropical moisture associated with the remnants of 'Odile' will continue to plague Texas with periods of heavy rainfall. In fact, a moderate risk of excessive rainfall is in effect for southeast New Mexico and west central Texas until Saturday morning---and a slight risk extends into north central Texas into late Saturday night. An additional 1-3 inches of rain will be possible within the excessive rainfall area. Please refer to the WPC QPFERD discussion for more details. Downstream over the northern Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula, a stationary front will serve as the focal point for scattered showers and thunderstorms through Saturday night. This front will slowly drift southward into the central Gulf of Mexico and through south Florida. By Saturday, a weak wave of low pressure will likely form on the Atlantic side of the stationary boundary and slowly drift northward along the Gulf Stream and bring the threat of showers and isolated heavy rains to the coast of the Carolinas Saturday night and Sunday morning. In the west, a mid-level trough will migrate across the Northern Plains and its cold front will weaken as it reaches the Great Lakes and southern half of the Missouri Valley. However, a secondary cold front will drop southeastward out of central Canada. By Saturday night, this secondary cold front and a Pacific surface ridge will build across the northern High Plains and overtake the lead boundary---sending the cold front surging into the Ohio Valley and central Plains-Mid-Mississippi Valley by Sunday morning. The Pacific surface ridge will produce an warm, offshore flow for the West Coast and introduce the thermal trough to the Pacific Northwest over the weekend. Scattered showers, light rain and a few thunderstorms will accompany the secondary front---as it progresses downstream on Saturday---from south central Kansas to lower Michigan. By Sunday morning, precipitation will be moving northeastward along the front from the lower Ohio Valley to the northern Appalachians. Vojtesak Graphics available at