Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014
Valid 12Z Fri Sep 19 2014 - 12Z Sun Sep 21 2014
...Flash Flood watches remain in effect for portions of Texas and
southeast New Mexico...
Today and tonight, tropical moisture associated with the remnants of
'Odile' will continue to plague Texas with periods of heavy rainfall. In
fact, a moderate risk of excessive rainfall is in effect for southeast New
Mexico and west central Texas until Saturday morning---and a slight risk
extends into north central Texas into late Saturday night. An additional
1-3 inches of rain will be possible within the excessive rainfall area.
Please refer to the WPC QPFERD discussion for more details.
Downstream over the northern Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula, a
stationary front will serve as the focal point for scattered showers and
thunderstorms through Saturday night. This front will slowly drift
southward into the central Gulf of Mexico and through south Florida. By
Saturday, a weak wave of low pressure will likely form on the Atlantic
side of the stationary boundary and slowly drift northward along the Gulf
Stream and bring the threat of showers and isolated heavy rains to the
coast of the Carolinas Saturday night and Sunday morning.
In the west, a mid-level trough will migrate across the Northern Plains
and its cold front will weaken as it reaches the Great Lakes and southern
half of the Missouri Valley. However, a secondary cold front will drop
southeastward out of central Canada. By Saturday night, this secondary
cold front and a Pacific surface ridge will build across the northern High
Plains and overtake the lead boundary---sending the cold front surging
into the Ohio Valley and central Plains-Mid-Mississippi Valley by Sunday
morning. The Pacific surface ridge will produce an warm, offshore flow for
the West Coast and introduce the thermal trough to the Pacific Northwest
over the weekend. Scattered showers, light rain and a few thunderstorms
will accompany the secondary front---as it progresses downstream on
Saturday---from south central Kansas to lower Michigan. By Sunday morning,
precipitation will be moving northeastward along the front from the lower
Ohio Valley to the northern Appalachians.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php