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Model Diagnostics Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1605Z Oct 18, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1205 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VALID OCT 18/1200 UTC THRU OCT 22/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS


...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OH VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC/NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH SUN...

PREFERENCE: NON-NAM CONSENSUS
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
  
THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGGING RATHER SHARPLY
ACROSS THE OH VLY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC LATER TODAY AND SUN.
THE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO GO NEG TILT OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND ON
SUN...AND THERE IS EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL INVIGORATE A
SFC LOW OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND THAT WILL LIFT UP INTO NOVA SCOTIA.
THE 12Z NAM IS SEEN AS BEING A SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND DEEPER OUTLIER
SOLN. WILL PREFER A NON-NAM CONSENSUS.

 
...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST MON
AND TUES...

PREFERENCE: NON-UKMET CONSENSUS
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE RIDGE JUST UPSTREAM OVER
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA BY SUN...THE MODELS
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ALONG WITH A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING DOWN INTO UPR MS VALLEY BY LATE SUN.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY RATHER VIGOROUSLY INTO THE
OH VLY/NORTHEAST MON AND TUES. THE 12Z UKMET IS A BIT FASTER THAN
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS UNTIL TUES WHEN IT COMES INTO BETTER
TOLERANCE WITH THE NAM/GFS/GEM AND ECMWF SOLNS. WILL FAVOR A
NON-UKMET CONSENSUS ATTM GIVEN REASONABLY GOOD MODEL CLUSTERING
SEEN WITH THE REMAINING GUIDANCE.


...SPLIT FLOW UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WEST...
...SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY SUN AND MON...

PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

A SPLIT FLOW UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST TONIGHT AND
SAT...WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY QUICKLY BREAKING AWAY AND
SHEARING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF THE
ORIGINAL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS CA AND INTO THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUN RESULTING IN A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW.
THE MODELS DEPICT GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT ON THE LARGER SCALE WITH
THIS SYS...SO A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WILL BE PREFERRED.


...DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST BY SUN AND
MON...

PREFERENCE: NON-UKMET CONSENSUS
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE MODELS AGREE IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT LONGWAVE TROUGH
OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST BY LATER SUN AS A RIDGE BUILDS DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PUSHES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. ON THE
LARGER SCALE...THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. THE 12Z UKMET THOUGH IS A TAD FASTER TO BRING THE HEIGHT
FALLS INLAND. THE REMAINING MODELS ARE WELL CLUSTERED ENOUGH THAT
A NON-UKMET CONSENSUS WILL SUFFICE.


www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ORRISON