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Model Diagnostics Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0428Z Apr 16, 2015)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1228 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

VALID APR 16/0000 UTC THRU APR 19/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


KICKER SHORTWAVE MOVING NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/CANADIAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

A PROGRESSIVE AND DEVELOPING BROAD UPSTREAM RIDGE IS SEEN IN THE
GUIDANCE WEST OF THIS SYSTEM.  DUE TO ITS BROADNESS, DO NOT
BELIEVE THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM SHARPER SOLUTIONS ALOFT.  AT THE
SURFACE, THE 12Z UKMET STRAYS FROM THE REMAINING CONSENSUS AND 12Z
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD.  A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z
CANADIAN IS PREFERRED HERE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


ENERGY ALOFT DROPPING DOWN THE CA COAST SAT/SUN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE ALLOWS ENERGY AT 500 HPA TO DROP SOUTHWARD AS RIDGING
BUILDS NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND.  THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE ON
OPPOSITE ENDS OF THE GUIDANCE STRENGTH-WISE, THOUGH MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIMILAR PROGRESSION.  A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z
GFS/12Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED HERE WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.


CLOSED LOW EMERGING INTO THE PLAINS SAT/SUN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/UKMET COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 12Z CANADIAN WAS SLOWER TO PROGRESS THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD WHILE
THE 00Z GFS WAS THE QUICKEST -- THEIR TYPICAL BIASES.  A
COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE SEEN IN
THE GUIDANCE.  THIS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


SHORTWAVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND SAT
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS UPSTREAM OF THIS SHORTWAVE, WITH A
BROAD RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
TRIES TO APPROACH THE SYSTEM FROM HUDSON BAY.  BELIEVE IT WILL
HAVE MINIMAL AMPLITUDE, IMPLYING THE 12Z ECMWF IS TOO STRONG.  THE
00Z GFS/12Z UKMET ARE QUICKER TO PROGRESS THE SYSTEM EASTWARD --
THEIR USUAL BIAS.  A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WILL TAKE
SOME OF THE AMPLITUDE OUT OF THE STRONGER ECMWF AND ALLOW FOR A
REASONABLE SOLUTION.  THIS IS PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


SHORTWAVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND FRI
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE.


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ROTH