Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Air Quality
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Model Diagnostics Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1838Z Jul 28, 2014)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VALID JUL 28/1200 UTC THRU AUG 01/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST... 


12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


SOUTHERN PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 12Z NAM IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE UNSEASONABLY DEEP CYCLONE IN SOUTHEAST
CANADA -- ITS USUAL BIAS.  BECAUSE OF THIS, IT LURES ITS SURFACE
LOW OUT OF TEXAS PAST THE ARKLATEX, WHICH ENJOYS THE SUPPORT OF
3-5 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OUT OF 90.  A NON-NAM COMPROMISE
IS PREFERRED HERE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE


NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE
CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED BY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND/OR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN.  THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS FEATURE, THOUGH DIFFERS AS TO ITS FORWARD
PROGRESSION.  THE 12Z GFS/12Z UKMET ARE QUICKER -- THEIR USUAL
BIAS -- WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z NAM/12Z CANADIAN SHOW A SLOWER
PROGRESSION.  THE GFS HAS TRENDED WEAKER/SLOWER WITH ENERGY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT QUICKER WITH THE ENERGY, FOCUSING ON A
DIFFERENT SHORTWAVE APPARENTLY SHEARING OUT FROM HERNAN. 
CONSIDERING THE RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS
CONVECTIVE ORIGIN, PREFER A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE FOR THE TIME
BEING WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THEIR DIFFERENCE
OF OPINION.


www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml... 
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... 

ROTH