Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Air Quality
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Model Diagnostics Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1840Z Aug 27, 2014)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
240 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

VALID AUG 27/1200 UTC THRU AUG 31/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


FINAL 12Z MODEL EVALUATION

...UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NORTHEAST...

PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

OVERALL...THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
THE TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT.

...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES IN THE PLAINS...
...SURFACE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING LATE WED IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...
...SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO THE MIDWEST...

PREFERENCE: NON-UKMET COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

OVERALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES UNTIL SAT MORNING WHEN THE UKMET BECOMES
AN AMPLIFIED OUTLIER BOTH WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW
AND SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

...SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING FROM THE PAC NW FRI MORNING TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY SAT EVENING...

PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE WITH SOME
MINOR TIMING/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...EASTERLY WAVE ADVANCING WEST ALONG THE GULF COAST...

PREFERENCE: NON-NAM/UKMET COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS RUNS...THE NAM IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTH TX/NORTHERN
MEX.  THE UKMET IS MORE AMPLIFIED AS WELL...MAINTAINING A
MORE-DEFINED UPPER FEATURE ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

...WAVE LIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

WHILE THERE ARE SOME RELATIVELY SMALL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/AMPLITUDE...MOST OF THE 12Z MODELS CARRY A WAVE NORTHWARD
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY
REGIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE NAM...WHICH IS MUCH WEAKER THAN
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MIGHT BE CONSIDERED THE LONE OUTLIER.

...DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHWEST BY FRI AND SAT...
...COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST...

PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AMONGST THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH
THESE FEATURES.

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

PEREIRA