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Model Diagnostics Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1847Z Oct 29, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

VALID OCT 29/1200 UTC THRU NOV 02/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


AMPLIFIED TROUGH APPROACHING WESTERN NORTH AMERICA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOWED SOME MINOR DIFFERENCE IN THE DETAILS
FROM RUN TO RUN...ALTHOUGH NONE OF THEM DEVIATED FROM THEIR
PREVIOUS SOLNS BY MUCH.  THIS LEAVES THE 12Z NAM ON THE SLOW SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE NEW UKMET WAS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS.  THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF STILL LIE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SPREAD AND ARE CLOSE TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM
OVERNIGHT.


TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
CLOSED LOW POTENTIALLY DROPPING INTO THE CAROLINAS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

THIS TROUGH AMPLIFIES DUE TO UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF A
TROUGH/RIDGE COUPLET NEAR THE WEST COAST/GREAT PLAINS
RESPECTIVELY.  THE MODELS STILL MAINTAIN BETTER CONVERGENCE THAT
APPEARED IN THE 29/00Z GUIDANCE.  THE 12Z NAM REMAINED DEEPER AND
ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE BY SATURDAY MORNING -- ITS
USUAL BIAS.  THE 29/00Z AND 29/12Z UKMET AND THE OVERNIGHT GEFS
FORMED A FAIRLY STRONG ALLIANCE.    SO STILL THINK A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE NEW ECMWF/GFS HAD THE BEST SUPPORT.

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

BANN