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Model Diagnostics Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0401Z Apr 23, 2015)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1201 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

VALID APR 23/0000 UTC THRU APR 26/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS


...DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...

PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE MODELS HANDLE THE DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
COMPARABLY THROUGH FRI AND GRADUALLY SHIFT THE ENERGY OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST CANADA ON SAT. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WILL BE
PREFERRED.


...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST
FRI AND SAT...

PREFERENCE: NON-UKMET CONSENSUS
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

ALL OF THE MODELS GRADUALLY TAKE THE SOUTHERN TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
NEAR SOUTHERN CA OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
FRI. THE ENERGY SHOULD THEN EJECT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND THE MIDWEST FR NIGHT AND SAT. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SAT AS THE ENERGY CROSSES THE MIDWEST...BUT
BY SUN...THE 12Z UKMET HANGS ON TO A SLOWER EVOLUTION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AS IT BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SYSTEM THAT DAMPENS OUT RATHER
QUICKLY OVER THE OH VALLEY ON SUN. A NON-UKMET CONSENSUS WILL BE
PREFERRED.


...DEEP TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DIGGING INTO THE WEST SAT AND SUN...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GEM
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL DIG SOUTHEAST AND
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. SAT AND SUN. THE 00Z NAM IS A TAD STRONGER
THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE 12Z UKMET IS THE WEAKEST AND
OVERALL THE MOST PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z GEM AND
00Z GFS ARE REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED IN BETWEEN AND THIS
CONSENSUS HAS DECENT SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST GEFS MEAN AND ECENS
MEAN. A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEM WILL BE PREFERRED.


www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ORRISON