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Model Diagnostics Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0455Z Apr 22, 2014)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1255 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

VALID APR 22/0000 UTC THRU APR 25/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY
AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT.


COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EAST TODAY
CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW FORMING NEAR NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE WEEK
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE UPON A COMMON
SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH SMALLER DETAIL DIFFERENCES REMAIN. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND CMC ARE BOTH A BIT MORE POTENT WITH A BALL OF MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY JUST OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WED...BUT NOT
UNREASONABLY SO. THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SLOWER/WEST
WITH THE CLOSED LOW THAT FORMS LATER THIS WEEK OFF OF THE
COAST...BUT THE MODELS ARE WITHIN THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD WHICH
IS RELATIVELY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.

THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE LIKELY CLOSEST TO THE MIDDLE OF THE
REMAINING MODEL SPREAD...BUT THIS SPREAD IS SMALL ENOUGH THAT IT
IS DIFFICULT TO REMOVE ONE MODEL FROM THE PREFERENCE.


LARGE TROUGH AFFECTING THE WEST TODAY...AND THE PLAINS ON WED
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 00Z NAM...00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE MODELS SHOW SOME WOBBLING ABOUT A COMMON SOLUTION GOING BACK
THROUGH THE PAST FEW RUNS...REGARDING THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING
OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON WED...AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THE 00Z NAM...GFS..AND 12Z ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR
EVOLUTIONS...WITH THE 00Z NAM A BIT EAST OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE
SURFACE / 850 MB LOW ACROSS S-CNTRL CANADA THU MORNING. THE 12Z
UKMET/CMC ARE FARTHER SOUTH...NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS...AND ARE FARTHER WEST BY FRI MORNING. THE BETTER ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT IS WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF.


BROAD TROUGH REACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE. SMALL DETAIL
DIFFERENCES WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST WITH THE SMALLER SCALE
SHORTWAVE PLACEMENT DETAILS...BUT THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION ACROSS THE WEST BY FRI MORNING. A GENERAL
MODEL COMPROMISE CAN BE USED TO IRON OUT LINGERING DETAIL
DIFFERENCES.


www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

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