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Model Diagnostics Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0639Z Oct 30, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

VALID OCT 30/0000 UTC THRU NOV 02/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


AMPLIFIED TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

ON THE WHOLE, THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. 
DETAIL ISSUES PERSIST WITHIN ITS NORTHERN PORTION NEAR MT AND
SOUTHERN PORTION NEAR CA, WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED WITH THE 12Z
ECMWF/00Z GEFS MEANS.  A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF, WITH
A SLIGHTLY GREATER LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH HAS SHOWN BETTER
CONTINUITY, SHOULD ACCOUNT FOR THESE ISSUES.


TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
CLOSED LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

THIS TROUGH AMPLIFIES DUE TO UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF A
TROUGH/RIDGE COUPLET NEAR THE WEST COAST/GREAT PLAINS
RESPECTIVELY.  THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z GFS SHOW 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
~5 SIGMAS BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY NOVEMBER IN THE CAROLINAS, CLOSE
TO A ONCE IN A 50 YEAR OR HISTORIC EVENT PER THE GRUMM/HART WORK
FROM 2002.  THE BETTER ST. LOUIS UNIVERSITY CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS
EVENT (BASED ON THE 00Z GFS) ARE FROM OCT 26 1990 (BONNER BRIDGE
STORM), DEC 6 2003, NOV 6 2010 -- THESE THREE MATCHED WELL THIS
TIME YESTERDAY -- ALONG WITH OCT 28 2008, DEC 5 1981, OCT 18 2009,
OCT 1 2011, AND NOV 23 2002.  THE 00Z NAM REMAINED DEEPER AND ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE BY SATURDAY EVENING -- ITS
USUAL BIAS.  A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS FITS THE 12Z
ECMWF/18Z GEFS MEANS AND 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERING THE
BEST.  CONSIDERING THE EXTREME NATURE OF THE EVENT EXPECTED,
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE.


www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH