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Model Diagnostics Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0420Z May 02, 2015)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1220 AM EDT SAT MAY 02 2015

VALID MAY 02/0000 UTC THRU MAY 05/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

...EVALUATION OF THE 00Z NCEP MODEL GUIDANCE...

THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WHICH
ADVERSELY IMPACTED THE 00Z NAM/GFS FORECASTS

...SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TO NORTH OF GREAT
LAKES...
...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE CNTL PLAINS...

PREFERENCE: NON UKMET GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE STEADY PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE UNITED STATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODELS STILL
GENERALLY SHOW GOOD CLUSTERING OF MASS FIELDS IN THE MID/UPR LEVEL
AND WITH RESPECT TO THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES.  EXCEPT FOR
THE FACT THAT THE UKMET EJECTS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EASTWARD FROM
A DEEP UPPER LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIAN COAST RESULTING IN A
MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. BORDER...A GENERAL MODEL
COMPROMISE WILL STILL WORK WELL FOR BOTH TIMING AND DEPTH OF THE
FEATURES THOUGH USUAL PCPN DETAILS WILL VARY ESPECIALLY GIVEN
INCREASING CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PCPN AND PSBL GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK
ISSUES.

...UPR TROF MOVING INTO THE THE SW U.S. FROM EAST PAC DAYS 2/3...

PREFERENCE..GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE...BELOW AVERAGE

ACTIVE SUBTROPIC JET IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF 30N
THIS PD WITH MODELS INDICATING SLOW PROGRESSION OF SEVERAL UPR
DISTURBANCES BETWEEN 120W AND 147W TOWARD SRN CA/BAJA DURING THE
SUN NIGHT/MON TIME FRAME.  THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WERE
A BIT SLOWER THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN/GFS/NAM IN BRINGING THE TROF
AXIS TOWARDS THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.  GIVEN THE MODELS
BEING IN AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS...A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS WOULD PROBABLY BE BEST.

...DEEP UPR LOW APPROACHING B.C./WA COAST BY LATE MON...

PREFERENCE...NON-UKMET COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE...AVERAGE

OVERALL DIFFERENCES ARE RELATIVELY MINOR WITH HANDLING OF MDTLY
DEEP UPR LOW FCST TO DROP SEWD FROM THE GULF OF AK TOWARD THE
B.C./WA COAST BY MON EVENING.   THE LARGER DIFFERENCES COME INTO
PLAY BEYOND THE DAY 3 PERIOD..BUT OTHERWISE THERE IS REASONABLY
GOOD CLUSTERING WITH THE HANDLING OF THE LOW AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 12Z UKMET WHICH REMAINED ON THE SRN EDGE
OF MOST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE.


www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

BANN