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Model Diagnostics Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1619Z Nov 22, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1119 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VALID NOV 22/1200 UTC THRU NOV 26/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


SHORTWAVE SPURRING LOW PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS TUE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: UKMET/CANADIAN/NAM COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

DIFFERENCES WITH SHORTWAVE STRENGTH ALOFT LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE PRESSURE ISSUES WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY, WITH THE 12Z GFS THE WEAKEST AND THE 00Z ECMWF
THE STRONGEST.  A SOLUTION ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE QUICK AND NON-AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN IN THAT
AREA.  HOWEVER, THE 00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN/12Z NAM ARE CLOSEST TO
THE INTERMEDIATE 00Z ECMWF/06Z GEFS/09Z SREF MEAN SOLUTIONS, AND
ARE PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE SYSTEM'S
QUICK MOVEMENT THROUGH THE FLOW PATTERN.


CONSOLIDATED MIDWESTERN TROUGH
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-GFS/NON-GEFS COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

MUCH LIKE OVERNIGHT, CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK HAUNTS THE
06Z/12Z GFS SOLUTIONS (AND LIKELY THE 06Z GEFS MEAN DUE TO SIMILAR
PHYSICS) WHICH USE MULTIPLE HUGE VERTICAL MOTION BULL'S EYES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPARENT SQUALL LINE AND CONVECTION IN THE
MIDWEST TO OVER-DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS SUBSEQUENTLY
CAUSES THE GFS/GEFS MEAN COLD FRONTS TO WHIP EASTWARD FASTER THAN
THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A 12Z
NAM/09Z SREF MEAN/00Z CANADIAN/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE FOR
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH