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Model Diagnostics Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0634Z Apr 20, 2015)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
234 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

VALID APR 20/0000 UTC THRU APR 23/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR
FORECASTS.


UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE NRN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WED
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

ENERGY ALOFT FROM A SHARP UPPER TROUGH PINCHES OFF FROM THE PARENT
UPPER TROUGH AND SLOWLY UNDERCUTS A CLOSED HIGH CENTERED UP IN THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES.  BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF/18Z GEFS MEANS SUPPORT
A SOLUTION STRONGER THAN THE 00Z CANADIAN HERE (WHICH IS RARELY
EVER SAID), ALONG THE LINES OF A 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS/00Z UKMET
COMPROMISE.  HOWEVER, THE UKMET IS UP TO ITS OLD TRICKS AND IS THE
QUICKEST MEMBER OF THE GUIDANCE.  A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z
ECMWF KEEPS THE BEST CONTINUITY, SO IT IS PREFERRED WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


PAIR OF UPPER LOWS NEAR SOUTHERN CA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NAM/CANADIAN/ECMWF/UKMET COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z GFS WAS STRONGER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE WITH THE FIRST
SYSTEM EJECTING INTO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT, AND QUICKER WITH
THE SECOND ON THURSDAY MORNING.  THE 00Z NAM/00Z ECMWF/00Z
UKMET/00Z CANADIAN ARE CLOSE TO THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS.  PREFER THE NON-GFS CONSENSUS HERE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.


DEEP CYCLONE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA
LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING FAVORED A SLOWER CYCLONE
PROGRESSION THAN SEEN ON THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS.  HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN NOW LIE MIDWAY BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM AND 12Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION.  TO PRESERVE REASONABLE CONTINUITY,
FAVOR THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN CONSENSUS WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH