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Model Diagnostics Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0443Z Apr 23, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1243 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID APR 23/0000 UTC THRU APR 26/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION...INCLUDING PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


MID LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IMPACTING NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE NAM REMAINS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IN
CLOSING OFF A MID-LEVEL CENTER LATE TODAY...AND THIS IS ALSO TRUE
AT THE SURFACE COMPARED TO THE REMAINING MODEL CONSENSUS.
HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THE NAM LOW IS COMPARABLE TO THE
REMAINING MODEL GUIDANCE AND GIVEN THE SHORT TERM NATURE OF THIS
FEATURE...THE NAM IS WITHIN REASON LEADING TO A GENERAL MODEL
COMPROMISE.


CURRENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST...REACHING THE PLAINS ON THU
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
THE SAT
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z NAM / 12Z UKMET BLEND
CONFIDENCE: A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE

THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE GUIDANCE TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND
NORTH WITH A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW THAT FORMS NEAR THE
U.S.-CANADIAN THU MORNING. THIS TRENDS CAUSES THE COLD FRONTAL
PROGRESSION TO BE SLOWER THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU/FRI. THE
LATEST ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THE EC MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED
NORTH...WHILE THE GEFS MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH. THE
LATEST...12Z/22 ECMWF MEMBERS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT TREND TO THE
NORTH WITH THE CLOSED LOW COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS 3 CYCLES
WHICH ARE SOUTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN SIMILAR TRENDS SEEN IN THE 12Z
UKMET/CMC...IT APPEARS TO BE THE NCEP CAMP VERSUS THE NON-NCEP
CAMP AT THE MOMENT.

THE CURRENT AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. WOULD ARGUE FOR A
SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PROGRESSION...SIMILAR TO THE NON-NCEP
CAMP...BUT ALSO FOR THE CLOSED LOW TO BE FARTHER SOUTH...SIMILAR
TO THE NCEP CAMP. GIVEN SOME OF THE OPPOSING TRENDS...PREFER TO BE
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN THE EXTREMES...BEST REPRESENTED BY
A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 12Z UKMET.


UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AFFECTING THE WRN U.S. FROM THU THROUGH SAT
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-NAM CONSENSUS AFTER 00Z/26
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

RECENT TRENDS HAVE SHOWN SOME CONVERGENCE SUCH THAT THERE IS NOW A
BROAD CONSENSUS OUTSIDE OF THE FASTER 00Z NAM REGARDING THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHWEST SAT MORNING. THIS NON-NAM
CONSENSUS IS CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SLOWER ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AND FASTER GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS
SIMILAR ALONG THE WEST COAST TO THE REMAINING MODELS UP UNTIL
00Z/26.


www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

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