Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Air Quality
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Model Diagnostics Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0635Z Nov 22, 2014)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
135 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VALID NOV 22/0000 UTC THRU NOV 25/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

...AN EVALUATION OF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG WITH FINAL
PREFERENCES/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...

THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE 00Z
NAM/GFS DEEMED SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT ITS THEIR FORECASTS.


...INITIAL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MX...
...EVENTUAL NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROF LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...
...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...
...POSITION OF MEAN TROF/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...

FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z UKMET/ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE

A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY EXITING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG WHILE CROSSING NORTHERN MX EVENTUALLY REACHING THE
BIG BEND OF TX BY 23/0000Z. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BECOME
EVIDENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST TX AND EVENTUALLY
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...THE 00Z
NAM/CMC ARE SLOWER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE. THE 00Z
GFS/GFS-PARALLEL/UKMET/ECMWF OFFER REASONABLE REPRESENTATIONS OF
THIS IMPULSE AS IT LIFTS ALONG THE MS RIVER AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE SUNDAY. THERE ARE CONCERNS THAT THE 00Z
GFS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEEPENING STAGE AND ALSO
BECOMES TOO QUICK TO LIFT THE CYCLONE INTO ONTARIO. THIS STRENGTH
DISCREPANCY APPEARS EVEN MORE RELEVANT AS A MAJORITY OF THE 00Z
GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED A BIT WEAKER. THE TIMING DIFFERENCE APPEARS
TO EVOLVE FROM THE POSITION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF CROSSING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. THE 00Z GFS AND A MAJORITY OF
THE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST A DEEPER/FASTER NORTHERN STREAM WHICH
AIDS IN STRONGER LOW DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM. NOT QUITE SOLD ON
THIS SOLUTION...PARTICULARLY AS THE 0OZ GFS-PARALLEL SHOWS A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER SYSTEM. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE 00Z GFS
PUSHES THE COLD FRONT MUCH FARTHER EAST. THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN HAS SHOWN A GREAT DEAL OF STABILITY IN ITS PAST FEW MODEL
CYCLES SO FEEL COMFORTABLE USING IT AS A BASE FOR THE FORECAST.
THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET AGREE REASONABLY WITH THIS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHILE
THE 00Z UKMET DOES OFFER A DEEPER SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS MORE LIKELY
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE SUGGESTED BLEND HERE IS A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z
UKMET/ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.



www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

RUBIN-OSTER