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Model Diagnostics Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1844Z Oct 19, 2014)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
244 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VALID OCT 19/1200 UTC THRU OCT 23/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/GEM AND THE
ECMWF


...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
MON AND TUES...
...DEEP CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC IMPACTING THE
NORTHEAST...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GEFS MEAN
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE

THE MODELS SHOW STRONG AGREEMENT IN AMPLIFYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE GRT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VLY MON AND TUES. A DEEP
CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BY WED AS
ADDITIONAL AMPLIFICATION OCCURS. SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE TUES IS PROGGED TO LIFT NEWD UP TO
JUST OFFSHORE SRN NEW ENGLAND ON WED. THE MODELS SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION AND DEPTH OF THE CLOSED LOW ON
WED...BUT THE 12Z UKMET IS THE STRONGEST SOLN WITH THE SFC LOW AND
TUCKS IT CLOSER INTO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS
TRENDED STRONGER WITH ITS CLOSED LOW...AND CLUSTERS WELL WITH THE
12Z GFS SFC LOW PLACEMENT BY LATE WED. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SOLNS
ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE UKMET WITH BRINGING LOW PRESSURE
INLAND. THE 12Z GEM IS EAST OF THE GFS/ECMWF CLUSTER...WITH THE
12Z NAM WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN FAVORS THE
GFS/ECMWF CLUSTER...WITH THE 00Z ECENS MEAN EAST OF THIS CAMP.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS
AND CLUSTERING...WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS MEAN.

 
...SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST SHEARING
DOWNSTREAM...

PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
 
A SRN STREAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST AND WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TUES AND WED.
THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SYS DAMPENING OUT THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS APPROACH FROM UPSTREAM. A
GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WILL BE FAVORED WITH THIS SYS.


...SPLIT FLOW TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WEST AND OUT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS TUES AND WED...
 
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z GEM AND 12Z
UKMET...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
            NON-GEM CONSENSUS...SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
 
THE MODELS SET UP A SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE WEST AND OUT INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUES AND WED...WITH NRN STREAM TROUGHING
CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS...AND SRN STREAM ENERGY
DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE 12Z UKMET/12Z
GEM AND THE 12Z ECMWF ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NRN STREAM
ENERGY VS THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS. THE 00Z ECENS MEAN FAVORS THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE NON-NCEP CONSENSUS. REGARDING THE SRN STREAM
ENERGY...THE 12Z GEM IS THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST SOLN. THE 12Z
NAM/12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET ARE A BIT FLATTER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECENS MEAN TEND TO FAVOR A
SOMEWHAT FLATTER SRN STREAM TROUGH. SO...BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DETAILS...WILL FAVOR A ECMWF/GEM/UKMET BLEND
FOR THE NRN STREAM ENERGY...AND A NON-GEM CONSENSUS WITH THE SRN
STREAM ENERGY.


www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ORRISON