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Model Diagnostics Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0636Z Oct 28, 2014)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
236 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VALID OCT 28/0000 UTC THRU OCT 31/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


AMPLIFIED TROUGH APPROACHING WESTERN NORTH AMERICA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z UKMET SHOWS THE SHALLOWEST SOLUTION ALOFT, WEAKER THAN
BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS MEANS ALOFT WHICH IS NORMALLY A RED
FLAG INDICATING IT IS TOO WEAK.  THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z NAM ARE
SLIGHTER BROADER ALOFT THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE WITH THE PORTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR WA EARLY FRIDAY.  A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z
GFS/00Z ECMWF FITS THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS THE BEST ALOFT AND
AT THE SURFACE.


TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH A SPOKE OF THIS SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES -- ITS USUAL BIAS.  THE 00Z CANADIAN IS
QUICKEST WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM SPOKE, WHICH DOES NOT BEFIT THE
PATTERN UPSTREAM (AMPLIFYING RIDGING).  THE 00Z ECMWF IS QUITE
STRONG -- STRONGER ALOFT THAN ITS 12Z RUN WITH THE SPOKE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES; THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT CONSIDERING THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE UPSTREAM.  THE 00Z ECMWF IS ALSO SLIGHTLY SLOWER
WITH THE TAIL END OF ITS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.  A
COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF ARE CLOSEST TO THE 12Z
ECMWF/00Z GEFS MEAN PROGRESSION ALOFT BOTH NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHEAST, AND SHOULD DEAL EFFECTIVELY WITH THE DEPTH OF THEIR
SURFACE LOWS NEAR MI.


www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH