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Model Diagnostics Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0418Z Aug 25, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1218 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

VALID AUG 25/0000 UTC THRU AUG 28/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS


...TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL...

PREFERENCE: NHC FORECAST TRACK

LOOKING AT THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE 03Z NHC FCST TRACK
OF T.S. CRISTOBAL IS CLOSEST TO THE 12Z ECMWF TRACK THROUGH ABOUT
72 HRS. THE 12Z UKMET IS A TAD SLOWER AND A LITTLE LEFT OF THE NHC
TRACK. THE 00Z GFS IS A LITTLE TOO THE RIGHT AND JUST A TAD
FASTER. THE 12Z GEM IS A LITTLE RIGHT BUT IS THE FASTEST SOLN. THE
00Z NAM IS A TAD SLOWER AND JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE NHC TRACK.


...UPPER LOW/TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
ONTARIO/QUEBEC THROUGH TUES...
...CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT...

PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCD SFC LOW INTO CANADA THROUGH TUES MORNING.
THERE IS MINIMAL SPREAD TOO WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST TUES
NIGHT AND WED. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WILL BE PREFERRED.


...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THROUGH WED...

PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

A BROAD TREND SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE NCEP AND
NON-NCEP DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE COLLECTIVELY HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE
TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS SHOW REMARKABLE AGREEMENT
ATTM WITH THE 12Z UKMET/12Z GEM AND 12Z ECMWF. BASED ON SUCH
STRONG LARGE SCALE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPR LOW AND ITS TIMING
OFF TO THE EAST...WILL PREFER A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE.


...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY WED AND THURS...

PREFERENCE: NON-NAM CONSENSUS
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
RIVER VLY ON WED AND INTO THE NORTHEAST ON THURS. THE MODELS ARE
WELL CLUSTERED WITH THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF THIS ENERGY...WITH
EXCEPTION OF THE 00Z NAM WHICH IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH
THE TROUGH. WILL BE FAVORING A NON-NAM CONSENSUS AS A RESULT.


www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ORRISON