Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Model Diagnostics Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0438Z Mar 04, 2015)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1138 PM EST TUE MAR 03 2015

VALID MAR 04/0000 UTC THRU MAR 07/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION...INCLUDING PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST/NORTHEAST
COLD FRONT SETTLING THROUGH THE EAST
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE BECOMING RELATIVELY MINOR
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE 00Z GFS IS
STILL ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING
SEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE MORE NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ARE RELATED TO THE SRN
PORTION OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHING THE MID-MISS VALLEY
THU MORNING. ONLY THE GEFS SUPPORTS THE GFS AT THIS TIME...WHILE
STRONGER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF/SREF/CMC EXISTS FOR A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION...BUT FASTER THAN THE 12Z UKMET...WITH
THE UKMET STILL APPEARING TOO SLOW. THIS PREFERRED TIMING IS BEST
REPRESENTED BY A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SLOW WITH PREVIOUS RUNS BUT HAS TRENDED QUICKER AND IS NOW A
BIT AHEAD OF THE 12Z ECMWF.


WEAKENING CLOSED LOW NEAR THE NRN BAJA PENINSULA MOVING INTO THE
  SRN HIGH PLAINS WED
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ENOUGH SINCE YESTERDAY AND NOW ALL SHOW
A SIMILAR EVOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE A GENERAL MODEL
COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED.


CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH REDEVELOPING OVER NWRN MEXICO THU/FRI
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON 12Z UKMET BLEND
CONFIDENCE: A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE

THE MODELS SHOW ENERGY DIGGING BACK INTO PARTS OF THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE BAJA PENINSULA BY THU AND FRI. OUTSIDE OF
THE 12Z UKMET...WHICH IS FARTHER TO THE WEST WITH A CLOSED LOW BY
MID-DAY FRIDAY...THE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT. THEREFORE...A NON 12Z UKMET BLEND IS PREFERRED.


SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THROUGH SWRN CANADA ON FRI...REACHING THE
  N-CNTRL U.S. SAT MORNING
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF...12Z CMC BLEND
CONFIDENCE: A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE

THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TO TRACK INTO WESTERN CANADA ON THU...ATOP A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR NRN CALIFORNIA. THE 00Z NAM BECOMES
THE WEAKEST SOLUTION IN TIME WITH THIS ENERGY...AND THE 12Z UKMET
IS TOWARD THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH TWO DEFINED
SHORTWAVES MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE N-CNTRL CONUS. THE 00Z GFS IS
ALSO ON THE STRONGER SIDE...BUT NOT LIKE THE UKMET...AND HAS
AGREEMENT IN TIMING WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND 12Z ECMWF/CMC.
POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS REDUCES CONFIDENCE
SOMEWHAT.


www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

OTTO