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Model Diagnostics Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0648Z Mar 04, 2015)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
148 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

VALID MAR 04/0000 UTC THRU MAR 07/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING FINAL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST/NORTHEAST
COLD FRONT SETTLING THROUGH THE EAST
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE BECOMING RELATIVELY MINOR
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE 00Z GFS IS
STILL ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING
SEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE MORE NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ARE RELATED TO THE SRN
PORTION OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHING THE MID-MISS VALLEY
THU MORNING. STRONGER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF/SREF/CMC
EXISTS FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION THAN THE 00Z GFS. THE 00Z
UKMET/CMC TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER FROM THEIR 12Z RUNS...BUT COULD
STILL BE A LITTLE SLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST WITH
THE COLD FRONT. THE 00Z ECMWF ADJUSTED FASTER IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE 00Z NAM AND THE PREFERRED TIMING CONTINUES TO BE BEST
REPRESENTED BY A BLEND OF THE NAM/ECMWF.


WEAKENING CLOSED LOW NEAR THE NRN BAJA PENINSULA MOVING INTO THE
  SRN HIGH PLAINS WED
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ENOUGH SINCE YESTERDAY AND NOW ALL SHOW
A SIMILAR EVOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE A GENERAL MODEL
COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED.


CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH REDEVELOPING OVER NWRN MEXICO THU/FRI
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON 00Z UKMET BLEND
CONFIDENCE: A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE

THE MODELS SHOW ENERGY DIGGING BACK INTO PARTS OF THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE BAJA PENINSULA BY THU AND FRI. OUTSIDE OF
THE 00Z UKMET...WHICH IS FARTHER TO THE WEST AND WEAKER WITH A
CLOSED LOW BY MID-DAY FRIDAY...THE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE...A NON 00Z UKMET BLEND IS
PREFERRED.


SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THROUGH SWRN CANADA ON FRI...REACHING THE
  N-CNTRL U.S. SAT MORNING
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF...00Z CMC BLEND
CONFIDENCE: A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE

THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TO TRACK INTO WESTERN CANADA ON THU...ATOP A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR NRN CALIFORNIA. THE 00Z NAM BECOMES
THE WEAKEST SOLUTION IN TIME WITH THIS ENERGY...AND THE 00Z
ECMWF/UKMET ARE TOWARD THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH TWO
DEFINED SHORTWAVES MAKING THEIR WAY TOWARD THE N-CNTRL CONUS. THE
00Z GFS IS ALSO TOWARD THE STRONGER SIDE...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE
OF THE UKMET/ECMWF WITH THE LATEST SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
SPAGHETTI HEIGHTS SUGGESTING THE ECMWF/UKMET ARE TOO AMPLIFIED BY
SAT MORNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN
THE MODELS REDUCES CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT...BUT CURRENTLY THE 00Z
GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 00Z CMC APPEAR THE MOST REASONABLE HERE
DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES.


www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

OTTO