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Model Diagnostics Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1815Z Oct 25, 2014)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
215 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VALID OCT 25/1200 UTC THRU OCT 29/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA/
DEEP CYCLONE AFFECTING B.C. AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MON/TUE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: UKMET/ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH INTERACTION OF WHAT WILL BECOME POST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA AND COLD AIR LOW TO ITS NORTH THOUGH
DIFFERENCES HAVE BECOME SMALLER COMPARED TO 00Z/06Z GUIDANCE. THE
12Z GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER THAN THE 06Z RUN WHICH WAS A FAST
OUTLIER SOLN.  THE 12Z GFS REMAINS AHEAD OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
THROUGH EARLY TUES BEFORE OTHER MODELS CATCH UP TO IT.  GIVEN THE
SLOWER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE EC AND UKMET...MORE WEIGHT IS
GIVEN TO THOSE SOLN WITH ASSOCD FRONTAL TIMING INTO THE PAC NW. 
SEE LATEST FORECAST FROM CPHC AND THOUGHTS FROM OPC...SEE CPHC
PRODUCTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON HURRICANE ANA.


UPPER TROF MOVING RAPDILY THROUGH THE WEST TOWARD THE GT LAKES
REGION
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~
PREFERENCE: GENL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

DIFFERENCES HERE ARE RELATIVELY MINOR WITH TIMING/AMPLITUDE
INITIALLY DEEP UPR TROF PUSHING EWD INTO THE WEST COAST TODAY AND
PROGRESSING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE GT LAKES REION BY TUES EVENING. 
MOST OF THE PCPN WILL BE WRUNG OUT AS IT CROSSES THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST..BUT RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP EAST OF THE MTNS AND ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE MS RIVER BY LATE MON INTO TUES TO SUPPORT AND INCREASE
IN SHWER ACTIVITY WITH THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT.  NO REAL NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES AGAIN IN MODEL HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH EMBDD VORT MAXIMA/JET
SPEEDS...SO A GENL MODEL BLEND IS FAVORED. 


DEEP CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/ATLANTIC CANADA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.


www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

SULLIVAN