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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1225Z Feb 20, 2015)
 
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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
725 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2015

Valid 00Z Sat Feb 21 2015 - 00Z Sat Feb 28 2015

The latest models and ensembles still reasonably agree that an
amplified mid-upper level trough now passing to the north of the
state is supporting a trailing surface frontal push into the
islands today. This front and modest moisture/shower focus will
gradually diminish over the weekend.

Pacific flow amplification next week should slow the next main
upstream mid-upper level trough to the northwest of the islands. A
favored guidance composite indicates that an associated frontal
system advances into the state late next week leading to pooled
moisture and organized showers working into the west-central
islands. This occurs as an amplified downstream mid-upper level
ridge settles to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. This ridge
may begin to be undercut by a lower latitide closed low that
guidance shows should prove slow to approach the Big Island from
the east-southeast late next week...but may get into close enough
proximity in about 7/8 days.

Schichtel