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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1202Z Apr 16, 2015)
 
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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
802 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2015

Valid 00Z Fri Apr 17 2015 - 00Z Fri Apr 24 2015

An upper level trough crossing the region today may support some
enhancement of shower activity.  Then showers will likely decrease
in coverage and intensity into the weekend as heights aloft rise,
with ridging over or just north of the islands through early next
week.  Also expect precipitable water values to decrease to the
0.75-1.25 inch range into early next week, and more likely in the
middle to lower half of that range to the northwest of the Big
Island.

Trades should be moderate to brisk, with strongest winds expected
early next week as a fairly strong surface high passes by to the
north.  By the middle of next week trades should slacken a bit and
moisture increase a little as high pressure reaches the eastern
Pacific and upper level height falls/leading surface front come
into the picture from the northwest.  At that time frame prefer to
lean somewhat away from the 00z ECMWF/06z GFS which extend
troughing aloft and the surface front somewhat
southeastward/closer to the islands than most other guidance. 
While there should be a little more deep moisture than earlier in
the period, most windward favored showers should remain in the
light to moderate range during next Tue-Thu.

Rausch