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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1147Z Apr 15, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product


HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
747 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

VALID 00Z WED APR 16 2014 - 00Z WED APR 23 2014

OF THE 15/00Z ECENS/GEFS/CMC MEANS AND THEIR DETERMINISTIC
RUNS...THE ECENS AND THE ECMWF PROVIDED THE BEST
CONSISTENCY...WITH THE CANADIAN AND ITS MEAN A CLEAR SECOND CHOICE
THROUGH DAY 7 FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND
SUBTROPICS.

THE 15/00Z GEFS/GFS SOLUTION ALOFT (500MB LEVEL) WAS CERTAINLY
VIABLE UNTIL 20/12Z ALONG THE DATELINE AND EAST OF 140W LONGITUDE.
HOWEVER...AFTER 20/12Z...THIS PIECE OF GUIDANCE BECOMES A VERY
FAST OUTLIER--BREAKING OFF A CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA AND TAKING IT INTO THE MAINLAND WEST COAST A GOOD DAY
EARLIER THAN THE CANADIAN/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS. THE GFS/GEFS IS AN EVEN FASTER SOLUTION INVOF ALEUTIANS
BETWEEN DAY 6-7...AND THE 15/06Z GFS/GEFS WAS EVEN FASTER!

RECOMMEND USING A BLEND OF THE 15/00Z ECENS MEAN AND ITS
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION. ANTICIPATE SOME DECREASE IN THE TRADE
WINDS DURING THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME AS A DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE
CYCLONE TAKES SHAPE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND DAMPENS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR 24-26 HOURS. AFTER 20/00Z...THE SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE 'SUBTROPICAL-LATITUDE' PACIFIC APPEARS TO RE-ESTABLISH
ITSELF NORTH OF THE ISLANDS FOR DAYS 5-7. BUT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF THE 'NEW' SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO BE A GOOD 3-5 MILLIBARS WEAKER
THAN THE CURRENT 1034 MB+ CELL INVOF 38.5N 144W.       

VOJTESAK