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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1212Z Nov 11, 2014)
 
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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
712 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2014

Valid 00Z Wed Nov 12 2014 - 00Z Wed Nov 19 2014

Models and ensembles maintain reasonable agreement with the
forecast for the next week.  Therefore would recommend an average
of latest guidance to resolve lingering timing/detail differences.
 A leading front initially approaching the area will stall
over/near the northwestern islands.  Then an amplifying trough
aloft to the north will push a second cold front into the region
late this week into the weekend.  Expect the combination of these
features at the surface and aloft to pull low latitude tropical
moisture northward/northeastward across the islands during the
latter half of the week, likely enhancing rainfall potential in
that time frame.  The forecast pattern may favor more rainfall
than indicated in recent GFS runs though perhaps not quite to the
extent of some maximum values seen in ECMWF runs.  Trade flow
should return by Sun-Tue as a weak surface high tracks north of
the state.  Light nature of trades may allow for some degree of
land/sea breeze focus to shower activity.

Rausch