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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1221Z Jan 17, 2015)
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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
721 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2015

Valid 00Z Sun Jan 18 2015 - 00Z Sun Jan 25 2015

A main mid-latitude storm track remains channeled north of the
state overtop an east-west oriented mid-upper level ridge centered
over the west-central Pacific southwest of the Hawaiian Islands.
Trades remain generally disrupted in this pattern over much of the
next week.

Model and ensemble forecast spread and uncertainty is still quite
low over the next week, so predictability looks good using a
preferred composite model and ensemble blend to smooth any of the
rougher smaller scale details.

Current passage of impulses energy aloft supported surface frontal
system and shower approach into the western islands. The stalled
front should gradually weaken over the weekend. Significant
Pacific flow amplification, including development of a strong
mid-upper level trough to the northwest of the state, is still
expected to force a second frontal approach into the state
starting Friday. This amplified system offers increased potential
for the return of deeper lead moisture inflow across the state to
fuel some heavier frontal/pre-frontal rains