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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1202Z Mar 25, 2015)
 
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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
802 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015

Valid 00Z Thu Mar 26 2015 - 00Z Thu Apr 02 2015

The 25/00Z forecast cycle did not waver much from current local
forecast package through day 2. The surface high migrating along
30N between 26/12Z and 27/12Z is a transitory feature of the
synoptic pattern---surging into the Mainland as a deep surface low
in the southwest Gulf of Alaska. The sub-980mb cyclone and its
central pressure near 50N 155W amplifies the low-level flow across
the central Pacific around the 28/00Z time frame.

The 25/00Z deterministic GFS/ECMWF equally handle the
scenario---though the qpf forecasts do differ enough between
26/12Z and 27/12Z to make mention---the 25/00Z GFS is a much
wetter solution versus the ECMWF over the eastern half of the
state.

Medium Range---
Flow pattern across the Pacific---especially the northeast
Pacific---has come into better focus---with the 25/00Z guidance
resolving some of the shortwave details between day 3 and day 5. A
blend of the 25/00Z ECENS, NAEFS and GEFS means beyond day 5
should handle the next mid-latitude trough approaching Hawai'i
from the northwest---between day 5-6.

Vojtesak