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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1203Z Oct 24, 2014)
 
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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
803 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 25 2014 - 00Z Sat Nov 01 2014

Some details of Pacific flow remain in question but guidance
spread has narrowed considerably versus yesterday with respect to
the forecast over/near the islands.  Initial high pressure to the
north near 40N latitude will gradually weaken as it slides
southeastward over the coming days.  As this occurs moderate
trades extending into the weekend should trend lighter early next
week.  Then expect low level winds to strengthen in response to
strong high pressure crossing the central Pacific and drifting
southeastward Thu-Fri.  The combination of an upper ridge
consolidating to the northwest of the state and downstream
troughing should bring a front southward to the region late next
week.  The 00Z GFS falls within the guidance clustering for the
surface high but is slower than the 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF with the
front.  There is reasonable agreement that a pocket of greater
deep moisture crossing the area on Sat may briefly enhance trade
showers.  Lighter trades early next week may then promote more
land and sea breeze influence, before returning to a windward
focus thereafter with some possible enhancement along the front
expected to approach/reach the region by next Fri.

Rausch