HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
747 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

VALID 00Z THU MAY 16 2013 - 00Z THU MAY 23 2013

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES STILL REASONABLY AGREE IN SHOWING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BRISK TRADE PATTERN THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  SHORT TERM
SHOWERS MAY BE ENHANCED OVER FAVORED TERRAIN WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
POOLING AND LIFT UNDER PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WEAKNESS/LOW...AND THIS SEEMS WELL DEPICTED BY LATEST WATER VAPOR
AND BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS.

GUIDANCE OFFERS SLIGHTLY LESS FORECAST SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY THAN
YESTERDAY WITH THE DIGGING EXTENT OF ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACH FROM THE NW OVER THE WEEKEND THAT WOULD EFFECT TRADES
WHILE BRINGING A RAINFALL FOCUSING FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE STATE. 
RECENT PATTERN HISTORY AND THE COMMON GUIDANCE BUILDING OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LENDS PREFERENCE TO EMPHASIZE
AN UPPER LOW POSITION JUST NORTH OF THE STATE SUN-WED THAT SEEMS
DECENTLY SUPPORTED BY A CLUSTER OF GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF.  GUIDANCE OVERALL SEEMS
UNDERDONE WITH LOCAL POOLED MOISTURE/RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN THIS
DEVELOPING/LINGERING WET PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

SCHICHTEL