Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
718 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2015
Valid 00Z Mon Jan 19 2015 - 00Z Mon Jan 26 2015
Model and ensemble forecast spread and uncertainty is still quite
low over the next week, so predictability looks good using a
preferred composite model and ensemble blend to smooth any of the
rougher smaller scale details.
A main mid-latitude storm track remains channeled north of the
state overtop an east-west oriented mid-upper level ridge centered
over the west-central Pacific southwest of the Hawaiian Islands.
Trades remain generally disrupted in this pattern and we expect a
fairly quite weather period into late week.
Significant Pacific flow amplification, including development of a
strong and slowly progressive mid-upper level trough to the
northwest then north of the state, should force an organized
frontal approach into the state by Friday that moves across the
islands next weekend. This amplified system offers increased
potential for a return of veered lead moisture inflow across the
state that may fuel some heavier local downpours. The models may
be underdone with this.