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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1227Z Apr 16, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product


HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
827 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VALID 00Z THU APR 17 2014 - 00Z THU APR 24 2014

FOR HAWAI'I AND THE SUBTROPICS...THE 16/00Z ECENS/GEFS MEANS AND
THEIR DETERMINISTIC RUNS PRODUCED A MORE 'STABLE' FLOW PATTERN
FORECAST THROUGH DAY 7 FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

'STABLE' IS A RELATIVE TERM TODAY...AND WITH RESPECT TO LATITUDE
RATHER THAN LONGITUDE.

THE 15/00Z GEFS/ECENS SOLUTIONS ALOFT (500MB LEVEL) WERE
APPROXIMATELY 15 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE APART WITH THE MIGRATION OF
AN ENERGETIC MID-LEVEL CYCLONE ACROSS THE DATELINE DURING THE
SUN/MON TIME FRAME (DAYS 4-5). THE 16/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
NARROWED THE DIFFERENCES DOWN TO APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES OF
LONGITUDE. YESTERDAY...WPC RECOMMENDED THE ECENS/ECMWF BLEND
AND...

THE SIGNIFICANCE FOR THE SUBTROPICS IS TWO-FOLD...IN THAT...THE
SUBTLE 'SLOWING' OF THE MIGRATION ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW ALONG
160W...AND THE 16/00Z GUIDANCE HELPS NARROW THE TIMING DOWN FOR
THE BRIEF 'RELAXATION' OF THE TRADES...A 24-HOUR
PERIOD...'BOOKEND-ED' AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY
MORNING...BEFORE THE TRADES RE-ENERGIZE AND A SUBTROPICAL SURFACE
RIDGE IS RE-ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.

RECOMMEND USING A BLEND OF THE 16/00Z ECENS MEAN AND ITS
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION.        

VOJTESAK