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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1217Z Jul 16, 2014)
 
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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
817 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2014

Valid 00Z Thu Jul 17 2014 - 00Z Thu Jul 24 2014


...Tropical Wave this Weekend...

The trades are forecast to be interrupted by a tropical wave
approaching Hawai'i from the southeast this weekend. The 00Z/16
high-resolution ECMWF indicates that the heart of the 850-millibar
circulation and deep-layer moisture should pass slowly along the
island chain Saturday through Tuesday. The ECMWF shows a plume of
precipitable water in excess of 2.00 inches affecting the state
during this time period. The plume is capable of fueling many
inches of rainfall, with a direct track of the low-level vorticity
across the high terrain the worst-case scenario with upwards of a
foot. That small-scale detail is still beyond the scope of the
time range of the event, but the threat should be noted. While not
presently expected by the National Hurricane Center to become a
full-blown tropical cyclone, winds in the high terrain could gust
in excess of 35kts over the weekend.


Cisco