HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
809 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

VALID 00Z MON MAY 20 2013 - 00Z MON MAY 27 2013

MODELS/ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT AN UPR LOW CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF
CLOSING OFF SHOULD REMAIN TO THE N OF THE STATE AROUND 28N
LATITUDE INTO TUE... THEN WEAKEN AND LIFT NWD/NEWD.  THERE IS SOME
DEBATE OVER WHETHER ENERGY FROM THIS FEATURE OR WITHIN SURROUNDING
FLOW MAY RETURN SWWD TOWARD/ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE W.  THUS FAR THE MAJORITY OF SOLNS WOULD
INDICATE A WEAKER MID LVL REFLECTION THAN SEEN IN THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC.  THE SFC FRONT/TROUGH ASSOC WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM
ALOFT AND CORRESPONDING BAND OF HIGHEST PWATS WILL LIE OVER THE
ERN ISLANDS INTO MON-TUE WITH THE BIG ISLAND SEEING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED RNFL.  THE SFC FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
WWD AFTER TUE AS NRN PAC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SWD INTO THE ERN
PAC... YIELDING MORE TYPICAL TRADE FLOW WITH WINDWARD-FOCUSED
SHWRS BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.  CURRENTLY THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN EXACT DETAILS ALOFT LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD DO
NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE SFC PATTERN BUT WILL
TEMPER CONFIDENCE IN WHERE SHWR ACTIVITY MAY BE ENHANCED.

RAUSCH