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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1214Z Apr 14, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product


HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
814 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

VALID 00Z TUE APR 15 2014 - 00Z TUE APR 22 2014

SHORT-TERM SENSIBLE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...FOLLOWING THE
EASTWARD MIGRATION OF A SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE ALONG 30N LATITUDE. THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE INVOF 40N 172W WAS HANDLED REASONABLY WELL BY THE
DETERMINISTIC 14/00Z ECMWF/GFS TO CONCLUDE THAT THE TRADES WILL
RELAX ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE AND ESPECIALLY ALOFT...AN EQUALLY-BLENDED SOLUTION
INCLUDING THE 14/00Z GEFS/ECENS LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH DAY 6
(SUNDAY) ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THIS ALLOWS A 500MB RIDGE TO
BUILD INTO HAWAI'I FROM WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST...THEN
SWEEP A LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO THE SUBTROPICS...IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEP UPPER LOW SHIFTING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS COULD BE UTILIZED THROUGH DAY 4 WITHOUT REGRET AS A BASELINE
FOR TRENDS IN THE TRADEWIND INTENSITY.

THE 14/00Z ECENS WAS A TAD FASTER THAN THE GEFS MEANS WITH THE
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...BUT THE DIFFERENCES WERE TIED TO SURFACE
PATTERN DEVELOPMENTS IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA AND DO NOT
APPEAR TO IMPACT THE SUBTROPICS.        

THE 14/00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS WAS ACTUALLY A BETTER FIT TO THE
ECENS MEANS THAN ITS OWN 14/00Z GEFS MEAN DURING THE DAY 3-5
PERIOD. AND THE DETERMINISTIC 14/00Z ECMWF WAS AN
AGGRESSIVE...MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND
GULF OF ALASKA. AT THIS POINT...IT (THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF) IS A
LOW-PROBABILITY OUTLIER (BEYOND DAY 6). 

VOJTESAK