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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1210Z Dec 16, 2014)
 
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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
710 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

Valid 00Z Wed Dec 17 2014 - 00Z Wed Dec 24 2014

High pressure initially to the north of the state will move east
but be replaced by another high on Thu, so expect trades to weaken
a little through Wed and strengthen again Thu.  By the weekend the
departure of this high, along with an approaching front supported
by an amplifying/sharpening trough aloft, will likely lead to
weaker and/or more southeasterly winds.  Passage of this fairly
strong front early next week should be accompanied by a period of
organized rainfall of varying intensity.  Models/ensembles agree
well on the forecast at the surface and aloft to about early Mon
and then diverge with respect to timing of the upper trough and
potential for an embedded closed low to form, along with the
associated surface evolution.  06z trends in both the operational
and parallel GFS are slower, which would suggest leaning perhaps
2/3 toward the slower ECMWF/ECMWF mean timing.  However the
operational 00z ECMWF run pulls its upper low so far southwestward
by next Tue-Wed that it achieves some 500mb height anomalies that
are 4-6 standard deviations below normal.  This along with the
fact that parallel GFS runs do not close off a low aloft as
quickly as the 00z ECMWF or 00z/06z GFS recommend the more open
00z ECMWF mean as the best individual piece of guidance at this
time.

Rausch