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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1154Z Oct 27, 2014)
 
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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
754 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2014

Valid 00Z Tue Oct 28 2014 - 00Z Tue Nov 04 2014

Into Tue expect trades to be on the lighter side as eastern
Pacific high pressure slowly weakens, so there may be somewhat
more than the average influence from sea and land breeze
boundaries on shower activity.  Strong high pressure crossing the
central Pacific north of the islands will help strengthen the
trades starting on Wed.  Low level flow will be confluent, with
sporadic boundary layer modest convergence maxima and plumes of
enhanced precipitable water aiding the usual terrain driven ascent
in producing showers. A 500 mb weakness is forecast to linger over
the islands during the weekend.

Model agreement on the low level anticyclone timing is better than
average through next weekend.  Differences begin to develop early
next week on the eventual approach of the next upper level trough,
with the 06z gfs showing a shorter wavelength trough than the
other models/means on Monday 03 Nov. Trades should begin to relax
early next week as high pressure continues moving eastward away
from the islands. 

Petersen