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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1206Z Jul 19, 2014)
 
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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
806 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Valid 00Z Sun Jul 20 2014 - 00Z Sun Jul 27 2014

The remnants of former tropical storm Wali will steadily move
through the region this weekend before exiting to the northwest
early next week. The models and ensembles remain in decent
agreement on increasing PW values to near 2 inches, which is about
+3 standard deviations, later today/Saturday and then only very
slowly dropping off through early next week. Rainfall amounts will
maximize in windward/terrain areas but all locations will see
appreciable rainfall of at least a quarter to a half inch in the
leeward areas to several inches in favored upslope regions.

Starting around Wednesday, the high PW values will drop back
toward average values (about one and a third inches) as upper
ridging moves over the region from the northeast and east. Trades
may be stronger than average Tue-Thu with a 1032mb sfc high near
40N until late next week as the ensembles show it weakening in
favor of another high pressure near the Aleutians.


Fracasso