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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1218Z Jan 30, 2015)
 
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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
718 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

Valid 00Z Sat Jan 31 2015 - 00Z Sat Feb 07 2015

The 30/00Z ECENS/GEFS means and deterministic runs continued the
scenario for an unsettled sensible weather pattern. The primary
features of the pattern---a deep migratory mid-latitude trough and
intense surface cyclone---taking shape in the central
Pacific---and slowly but effectively eroding a long wave ridge
along the west coast of the North American continent.

The amplitude of the upper-level trough is impressive---but not
unprecedented. At 500mb---the trough axis swings eastward from
160W to 155W by day 7 (6/12Z) with the 564dm contour crossing 25N
latitude. Both 30/00Z ensemble means (ECENS/GEFS) agree with the
scenario and the depth of the surface cyclone (around 970mb) was
reasonably positioned by the deterministic GFS/ECMWF runs---at
5/00Z---invof 39N/40N and 143W.

Given the very reasonable ensemble guidance and central Pacific
solution---the deterministic 30/00Z ECMWF/GFS could be utilized
into day 6 with the timing of the surface front migrations across
the Subtropics and the Islands. For day 7, blending the 2 means
should yield good results and serve as a baseline for a steady day
8+ forecast.

Vojtesak