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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1223Z Jul 18, 2014)
 
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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
823 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014

Valid 00Z Sat Jul 19 2014 - 00Z Sat Jul 26 2014


...Tropical Storm Wali...

Now that the Central Pacific Hurricane Center is tracking the
tropical system advertised during the last few days, will rely
upon their assessment. The latest advisory has the post-tropical
system approach the Big Island from the east Sunday evening. The
00Z/18 high-resolution ECMWF spreads a plume of air with
two-inch-plus precipitable water values across the eastern islands
Saturday night, with only a slow clearing of the very moist
airmass into early next week. Based on the quantitative
precipitation patterns from that run of the ECMWF and the most
recent GFS, Hawai'i could well receive several inches of rainfall,
particularly if the mid-level ridge to the northeast remains
robust. Conservative estimates of the rainfall potential for the
favored terrain would be 5-10" based on the relatively slow
movement of the deep-layer atmospheric wave.


Cisco