HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
826 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

VALID 00Z WED MAY 15 2013 - 00Z WED MAY 22 2013

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REASONABLY AGREE IN SHOWING AN EMERGING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BRISK TRADE PATTERN THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  SHOWERS
SHOULD BE ENHANCED OVER FAVORED TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOLING AND LIFT UNDER PROXIMITY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS/LOW...AND THIS SEEMS WELL DEPICTED BY LATEST
WATER VAPOR AND BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS.

GUIDANCE OFFERS MORE FORECAST SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DIGGING
EXTENT OF ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NW OVER
THE WEEKEND THAT WOULD EFFECT TRADES.  RECENT PATTERN HISTORY AND
THE COMMON GUIDANCE BUILDING OF AN AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LENDS PREFERENCE TO EMPHASIZE AN UPPER LOW POSITION JUST
NORTH OF THE STATE SUN-TUE THAT SEEMS DECENTLY SUPPORTED BY A
CLUSTER OF GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.  THIS FAVORS SHOWERY ISLAND
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

SCHICHTEL