Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1218Z Feb 21, 2015)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product


Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
718 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2015

Valid 00Z Sun Feb 22 2015 - 00Z Sun Mar 01 2015

Guidance reasonably agrees that an amplified mid-upper level
trough now lifting to the northeast of the state supported a
trailing surface frontal push into the islands. This front and
modest moisture/shower focus will gradually rescede and  diminish
over this weekend leading into a period of drier trade flow.

Pacific flow amplification should meanwhile slow the next main
upstream mid-upper level trough to the northwest of the islands.
Model and ensemble forecast spread and uncertainty remains below
normal in the pattern. A favored guidance composite continues to
indicates that an associated frontal system advances to the state
late next week leading to pooled moisture and organized showers
working into the west-central islands. This occurs as an amplified
downstream mid-upper level ridge settles to the northeast of the
Hawaiian Islands. This ridge may be undercut by a lower latitide
closed low that guidance shows should prove slow to approach the
Big Island from the east-southeast late next week, but may get
into close enough proximity in about a week to keep an eye on.

Schichtel