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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1928Z Feb 25, 2015)
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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
228 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2015

Valid 00Z Thu Feb 26 2015 - 00Z Thu Mar 05 2015

The 25/00Z forecast cycle of the ECENS/ECMWF, GEFS/GFS and NAEFS
seemed to be in decent agreement through the entire forecast
period---though there are some subtle differences aloft on or just
after 3/00Z.

Concerning the 'Kona-like' upper system along 15N 140W, the latest
guidance has not made many changes---allowing the feature to make
its closest approach to the Big Island around 27/12Z---then have
mid-level ridge to its north and the frontal boundary to its
west---effectively 'blocking' its westward migration after 27/12Z.

For the latter half of this forecast period, recommend a blend of
the 25/00Z GEFS/ECENS/NAEFS. This would make for a slightly
more-amplified flow pattern across the Pacific---but a slower
west-to-east progression of the low-level front across Hawai'i
this weekend and early next week.