Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
726 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014
Valid 00Z Thu Nov 27 2014 - 00Z Thu Dec 04 2014
The latest models and ensembles reasonably agree that several
post-frontal high pressure cells will reinforce cooler and
predominantly drier trades over the islands for the next 5-6 days.
Prefer a model and ensemble composite blend for this period.
Forecast spread and implied uncertainty increases considerably
across the Pacific by days 6/7 heading into next midweek. This
lends to an ensemble mean based solution and you can glean from a
preferred and more compatable GFS/ECMWF ensemble mean mix that
trough energies working toward/to the north of the islands may be
sufficient to drag a trailing front to the northwest of the state
and allow for a more favorable lead return moisture feed back up
into the Hawaiian Islands.