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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1229Z Nov 24, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product


Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
729 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2014

Valid 00Z Tue Nov 25 2014 - 00Z Tue Dec 02 2014

Vigorous mid-level wave near 30N 158W on track to introduce a
cooler, lower dew point airmass---and scattered showers across the
Islands during the next 24 hours. This wave will rapidly close off
into a moderately-intense surface cyclone and migrate
northeastward towards the Mainland.

The differences in the Subtropics between the 24/00Z deterministic
GFS/ECMWF runs concern the timing of a second mid-latitude trough
progression across the Dateline. At the surface, the GFS/ECMWF are
in better agreement with the depth and track of the upper-level
feature---and more importantly---have settled on a mid-latitude
track for this wave---along 45N.

This will reinforce a weak post-frontal shear line scenario north
and northwest of the islands for day 3...possibly day 4. Beyond
day 4, the GFS is more aggressive with mid-level energy from the
mid-latitude wave train descending into the Subtropics.

Suggest a blend of the 24/00Z ECENS/GEFS for days 5-7.

Vojtesak