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Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0304Z Feb 23, 2015)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1004 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

VALID 12Z THU FEB 26 2015 - 12Z MON MAR 02 2015

...PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE LOWER 48...


...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE PREFERENCES...

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT ON A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND...
CENTERING THE TROUGH AXIS INTO THE WEST WHILE THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE
BUMPS UP HEIGHTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THE LINGERING ISSUE WITH
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS REMAINS THE RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH
SHORTWAVE TIMING/AMPLITUDE. ONLY THE VERY RECENT RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD MORE SEPARATION IN THE FLOW OVER THE WEST
ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN LESS CONSISTENT THAN THE GFS
THOUGH NEITHER HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY STELLAR. THAT BEING SAID...
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWED THE PATH OF LEAST REGRET AND A BLEND
BETWEEN THE 18Z GEFS MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFERED A
GOOD STARTING POINT. CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

IN THE WEST... DIGGING TROUGHING SHOULD BRING LOWER TEMPERATURES
AND A WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO NEARLY THE ENTIRE REGION
BUT FOCUSED FROM THE PAC NW THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE
FOUR CORNERS. SFC FRONT EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL ENHANCE THE
UPSLOPE PRECIP IN NM/CO/WY. AS THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS WEEKEND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BLOSSOM OVER
AND THEN EAST OF THE PLAINS. ENSEMBLES HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT WITH SNOW TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THAT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

IN THE EAST... PESKY SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY
WILL EXIT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND ALLOW COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
TO SLIDE INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY... SETTING UP
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. SOME RECORD LOWS AND LOW MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.
THE HIGH WILL LIFT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND INTO ATLANTIC CANADA
SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW AND MUCH MILDER AIR -- NEAR TO JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE -- TO STREAM NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.


FRACASSO