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Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1450Z Sep 29, 2014)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1050 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

VALID 12Z THU OCT 02 2014 - 12Z MON OCT 06 2014


THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE A RETURN TO A TROUGH OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE CONTINENT. THE MOST RECENT ENSEMBLE MEANS--PARTICULARLY THE
00Z/29 VERSIONS OF THE ECENS AND GEFS--ARE QUITE SERVICEABLE AS
SYNOPTIC GUIDES THIS PERIOD, WITH NO ADVANTAGE TO THE DIRECT
INCORPORATION OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS. IN FACT, THE EC MOS 99F FOR
SAN FRANCISCO DAY 4 IS AN EXAMPLE OF THE DOWNSIDE OF DETERMINISM
IN THIS CASE.

MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD SHOULD PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND DEEP
SOUTH DAYS 4 AND 5. THEREAFTER, A WHOLESALE DRYING IS ANTICIPATED
AS THE BROAD RIDGE OF AND TROUGH COUPLET EMERGES.


CISCO