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Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0445Z Sep 14, 2014)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1245 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VALID 12Z WED SEP 17 2014 - 12Z SUN SEP 21 2014


...SOUTHWEST VULNERABLE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF TROPICALLY-FED
SHOWERS...


RELIED AGAIN ON THE MOST RECENT EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN AS A
SYNOPTIC TEMPLATE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS--GFS AND ECMWF,
INCLUDED--ARE STILL MARKED BY ENOUGH SPREAD TO PRECLUDE THEIR
DIRECT INCORPORATION INTO THE BLENDED MASS FIELDS. AT THE LARGE
SCALE, THE FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AT THE MEDIUM RANGE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE. THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES, WITH FLORIDA QUITE WET
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE POLAR FRONT.

THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHWEST OWES IN PART TO THE
LONGWAVE PROGRESSING INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC. AS WITH THE EVENT
ABOUT ONE WEEK AGO IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, ENERGY KICKING INLAND IN
THE WESTERLIES IS SET TO DRAW A DEEP SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL CYCLONE--IN THIS CASE, HURRICANE ODILE. WHO GETS WHAT AND
FOR HOW LONG ARE STILL UNANSWERED SENSIBLE WEATHER QUESTIONS, BUT
A VARIETY OF SCENARIOS COULD SOAK NORMALLY DRY REGIONS ANYWHERE
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, TO THE LOWER DESERTS AND GREAT BASIN, TO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.



CISCO