Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Air Quality
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1559Z Oct 29, 2014)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1159 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

VALID 12Z SAT NOV 01 2014 - 12Z WED NOV 05 2014

...STRONG NOR'EASTER TO FORM JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND...

...MUCH NEEDED RAIN LIKELY FOR SOME BUT NOT ALL OF CALIFORNIA...

...OVERVIEW...

IN AN ABOUT-FACE TURN FROM RECENT WARM WEATHER IN THE EAST... MUCH
COLDER AIR IS POISED TO WRAP AROUND A DEVELOPING OCEANIC STORM
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND AND PLUNGE
SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA. A NEARLY BALANCED UPPER PATTERN ON THE
WEST COAST WILL DRIVE A SYSTEM INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST
BRINGING WINDY AND WET /AND WHITE/ CONDITIONS TO MANY AREAS THAT
COULD USE THE RAIN THOUGH THIS WILL ONLY BE A DROP IN THE BUCKET
FOR SOME PLACES.


...GUIDANCE PREFERENCES...

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEL AND ENSEMBLE FLIPPING... FLOPPING...
AND FLOUNDERING... THE GUIDANCE HAVE STARTED TO CONVERGE TOWARD A
COMMON SOLUTION WITH THE IMPRESSIVE DIGGING MID-UPPER PATTERN OVER
THE EAST COAST AND A COMPLEMENTARY DEEP BUT PROGRESSIVE AND
OPENING TROUGH IN THE WEST. GIVEN THE ONGOING SHUFFLING OF
SOLUTIONS... HAVE OPTED TO USE A MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND SINCE
THE EVOLUTION REMAINS SENSITIVE TO UPSTREAM DETAILS NOT YET FULLY
RESOLVED. THIS ALSO CONTINUES THE WPC BLEND TREND OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WHICH HAS OFFERED MORE STRUCTURED/INCREMENTAL CHANGES.

AS THE EASTERN TROUGH LIFTS OUT...THE WESTERN TROUGH APPEARS READY
TO SPLIT DOWNSTREAM OF A QUICKENING 150+ KT JET SOUTH OF ALASKA.
06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ALIGN RATHER WELL WITH THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS
TAKING THE NORTHERN ENERGY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE LINGERING ENERGY OVER NW MEXICO. TRENDED TOWARD MORE
ENSEMBLE MEANS OVER THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS THOUGH OVERALL
AGREEMENT APPEARS NEAR OR BETTER THAN AVERAGE FOR THAT LEAD TIME.
EVEN OFFSHORE THE PAC NW... MODELS/ENSEMBLES SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT
ON A SFC WAVE NEAR 130W BE NEXT WED... THOUGH THIS MAY BE MORE
HAPPENSTANCE THAN ANYTHING.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

A WITCH'S BREW OF RAIN...WIND... COLD... AND SNOW WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND AS WE START
NOVEMBER. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ALL THE
WAY INTO FLORIDA WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH RECORD
LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS. APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE APPALACHIANS AND LEE OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST ARE LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE AMPLIFICATION. 

WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE PLAINS SUN-MON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A STRONG JET STREAK EJECTS
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND GLIDES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN QPF FOR
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE BROAD SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN NW
MEXICO. HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER TX/OK.


FRACASSO/VOJTESAK