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Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1600Z Feb 25, 2015)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VALID 12Z SAT FEB 28 2015 - 12Z WED MAR 04 2015

...OVERVIEW...

MAJOR MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LARGE-SCALE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN PART OF NORTH AMERICA IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD THROUGH
NEXT WED.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCES SEEN ARE THE DEGREE OF SEPARATION
BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH WESTERN
CANADA AND HOW FAR THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST BY DAY 6 AND 7.  OUR APPROACH IS TO TREND TOWARD
A 70% EC MEAN WITH A 30% NAEFS BY DAY 7 WHILE TAKING NOTE OF THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEEDS OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS AS DEPICTED IN THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

INITIAL WRN CONUS TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT EWD/NEWD AS
WELL AS DOWNSTREAM SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD A BROAD SHIELD OF
MSTR FROM THE SRN 3/4 OF THE WEST ACROSS THE CNTRL-SRN PLAINS AND
MOST OF THE EAST.  INCREASING LOW LVL GULF INFLOW SHOULD ALSO
ENHANCE ACTIVITY FROM THE PLAINS EWD.  TIMING MAY BE DELAYED A BIT
COMPARED TO 24-36 HRS AGO BUT THE SIGNALS FOR HEAVIEST PCPN REMAIN
OVER SIMILAR AREAS... FROM CNTRL AZ INTO CO/NRN NM AND THEN FROM
THE ERN PLAINS/AR TOWARD THE CNTRL-SRN APLCHNS.  THIS LATTER AREA
MAY BE SENSITIVE TO HVY RNFL GIVEN HVY ACTIVITY IN THE PAST WEEK
AND PSBL SNOW MELT AT SOME LOCATIONS.  EXPECT SNOW AND LOW ELEV
RAIN OVER THE WEST WITH SNOW/WINTRY MIX FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
EWD-NEWD.  UPSTREAM ENERGY FLOWING INTO THE WEST SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER AREA OF PCPN THROUGH THE REGION DURING NEXT MON-WED.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL OVER A MAJORITY OF THE LOWER 48
WITH THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE SRN TIER WHERE MINS IN
PARTICULAR MAY BE QUITE WARM BY MON-WED.  MUCH OF THE CNTRL-ERN
STATES SHOULD SEE MINUS 10-25F ANOMALIES ON SAT FOLLOWED BY
CONSIDERABLE MODERATION SUN-MON.  ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR SHOULD
BRING SIMILAR ANOMALIES INTO THE PLAINS NEXT TUE-WED WITH EVEN NRN
PARTS OF THE WEST PSBLY SEEING TEMPS AS LOW AS 10-20F BELOW NORMAL
AT THAT TIME.

KONG/RAUSCH