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Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0441Z Apr 19, 2014)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1241 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID 12Z TUE APR 22 2014 - 12Z SAT APR 26 2014

...GUIDANCE PREFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENTS...

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE SOME TIMING/STRENGTH ISSUES WITH
SMALLER SCALE EMBEDDED IMPULSES/INTERACTIONS...BUT OVERALL OFFER
REASONABLY CLUSTERED MID-LARGER SCALE FLOW EVOLUTIONS AND IMPROVED
FORECAST SPREAD FOR THE NEXT WEEK.  THIS LENDS A WPC BLEND OF
COMPATABLE GUIDANCE FROM THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF AND 12 UTC
GFS/ECMWF/NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS DAYS 3-7.  THIS WPC BLENDED
SOLUTION IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE FULL ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE
SOLUTIONS AND PROVIDES GOOD CONTINUITY GENERALLY ONLY SLIGHTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED AND LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN YESTERDAY. 
PREDICTABILITY SEEMS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST FORECAST
VARIABLES OUT THROUGH MEDIUM RANGE TIME SCALES.

...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

QUITE AMPLE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGIES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST TUE WORK/INTERACT OVER THEN OFF THE ERN/NERN US
WED/THU...WITH MODEST PCPN IN ADVANCE AND DECENT POST-FRONTAL
COOLING HIGH PRESSURE.  THIS STRONGLY AMPLIFYING KICKER SYSTEM
MEANWHILE FORCES A LEAD/SEPARATED SRN STREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL EARLY
WEEK TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM OFF THE SERN US TO EJECT NEWD
ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE.

UPSTREAM...ANOTHER AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/POTENT HEIGHT
FALLS WORKS INLAND ACROSS THE US WEST COAST TUE AND THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND STILL WINTERY NRN ROCKY STATES MIDWEEK
BEFORE CROSSING THE CENTRAL THEN EAST-CENTRAL US THU/FRI. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WELL ORGANIZED LOW/FRONT TO DEVELOP AND
INCREASINGLY FOCUS MOISTURE/PCPN ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL COOLING
ACROSS THE REGION.  HEAVIEST PCPN POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CLOSER TO
THE MAIN LOW TRACK ACROSS NWRN US/NRN ROCKIES TERRAIN AND OUT
ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL US...BUT DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALSO OFFER A CONVECTIVE SPARK FARTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
WELL WARMED S-CENTRAL AND E-CENTRAL US AS MOISTURE RETURNS FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM
WITH ENHANCED PCPN REACHES THE NWRN US IN ABOUT A WEEK.

SCHICHTEL