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Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1555Z Aug 31, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1155 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VALID 12Z WED SEP 03 2014 - 12Z SUN SEP 07 2014


USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z/31 ECMWF AND ECENS MEAN FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE GFS AND GEFS MEANS WERE SUFFICIENTLY OUT OF SYNC WITH
BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN PRODUCT SUITES TO PRECLUDE THEIR
USE IN THE MANUAL BLEND. THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THE CHOICE FOR THIS
FORECAST WAS THE TIMING OF THE CONTINENTAL POLAR FRONT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST DAYS 6 AND 7. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GDPS
WERE BOTH SLOWER THAN THEIR ATTENDANT MEANS WITH THE FRONT--A
REFLECTION OF A SIZABLE NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FASTER WITH THE
FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE IN THE PERIOD. WITH THE
FAIRLY EVEN SPLIT IN TIMING, ELECTED TO AVERAGE THE WHOLE AFFAIR
AT THIS POINT.

MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION AT THE MEDIUM RANGE IS INDICATED OVER
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WHERE THE EMERGENT WESTERN TROUGH
HEAVILY TAPS THE TROPICS.


CISCO