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Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1543Z Jul 24, 2014)
 
Version Selection
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1143 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

VALID 12Z SUN JUL 27 2014 - 12Z THU JUL 31 2014


AT THIS POINT, ALL THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS RESOLVED THE
NEXT HIGH-AMPLITUDE MERIDIONAL EVENT DURING THIS ANOMALOUS MONTH
OF JULY, SO SOLUTION DIFFERENCES ARE WELL BELOW AVERAGE. MUCH OF
THE AGREEMENT OWES TO THE STABILITY OF THE UPCOMING POSITIVE-PHASE
PACIFIC-NORTH-AMERICAN OSCILLATION. THE LONGWAVE TRAIN FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COVERS ENOUGH LATITUDE TO
PRECLUDE THE NORMAL ISSUES OF SPLITTING. FURTHERMORE, THE LARGE,
LOOPING MERIDIONAL WAVES EXTEND INTO EUROPE AND ASIA, ADDING AN
ADDITIONAL DIMENSION OF STABILITY.

USED THE 00Z/24 EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FRONTS AND
PRESSURES THIS PACKAGE MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUITY OF THAT
GUIDANCE WITH THE FLOW PREDICTIONS OVER THE ADJACENT OCEANS.
REALLY THOUGH, THE RECENT GEFS MEANS AND 00Z/24 GFS WOULD SERVE
EQUALLY WELL. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF
AT LEAST -3.0 AT 500MB BETWEEN THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVERS MID
PERIOD. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ANOMALIES SHOULD SHOW UP POINTEDLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX, WHERE DAYTIME
HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO RUN FAR BELOW NORMAL IN THE OVERRUNNING ZONE
NORTH OF THE POLAR FRONT--MUCH LIKE THE EVENT ABOUT A WEEK AGO.
ALSO LIKE THE EVENT FROM MID MONTH, THE FAR WEST LOOKS SCORCHING
HOT, WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN LIKELY TO REACH OR EXCEED THE
CENTURY MARK IN EASTERN WASHINGTON AND THE ADJACENT LOWLANDS OF
IDAHO. ADDITIONALLY, THE MONSOON SHOULD SEND ENOUGH MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD TO FUEL HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE PARCHED FAR WEST--A CRITICAL CONCERN FOR WILDLAND
FIRES.


CISCO