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Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0525Z Apr 18, 2014)
 
Version Selection
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
125 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

VALID 12Z MON APR 21 2014 - 12Z FRI APR 25 2014

...GUIDANCE PREFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENTS...

ALTHOUGH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SOME TIMING/STRENGTH ISSUES
WITH SOME EMBEDDED IMPULSES...THEY OVERALL SEEM TO OFFER
REASONABLY CLUSTERED SOLUTIONS LENDING A MITIGATING WPC BLEND OF
COMPATABLE GUIDANCE FROM THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS MEAN/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN THROUGH DAYS 3/4 MON/TUE.   INCREASINGLY TROUBLESOME
FORECAST SPREAD AND CONTINUITY VARIABILITY SUGGEST A QUICK
TRANSITION TO A COMPATABLE BUT LESS DETAILED 12 UTC GEFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH DAYS 5-7 WED-FRI.  THIS WPC BLENDED
SOLUTION IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE FULL ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE
SOLUTIONS DAYS 3-7 AND OFFERS NEAR AVERAGE PREDICTABILITY FOR MOST
FORECAST VARIABLES.

...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

AMPLE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGIES OVER THE CENTRAL US MON
WORK/INTERACT OVER THE ERN/NERN US BY MIDWEEK...WITH MODEST
PCPN/SOME STRONGER CONVECTION IN ADVANCE AND DECENT POST-FRONTAL
COOLING HIGH PRESSURE.  THIS PROGRESSIVE KICKER SYSTEM MEANWHILE
FORCES A LEAD/SEPARATED SRN STREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE SYSTEM OFF THE SERN US TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE WRN
ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE.

UPSTREAM...AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/POTENT HEIGHT FALLS
WORKS INLAND ACROSS THE US WEST COAST TUE AND THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND STILL WINTERY NRN ROCKY STATES MIDWEEK
BEFORE CROSSING THE CENTRAL THEN EAST-CENTRAL US THU/FRI. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WELL ORGANIZED LOW/FRONT TO DEVELOP AND
INCREASINGLY FOCUS MOISTURE/PCPN ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL COOLING
ACROSS THE REGION.  HEAVIEST PCPN POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CLOSER TO
THE MAIN LOW TRACK ACROSS NWRN US/NRN ROCKIES TERRAIN AND OUT
ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL US...BUT DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALSO OFFER A CONVECTIVE SPARK FARTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
WELL WARMED S-CENTRAL AND E-CENTRAL US AS MOISTURE RETURNS FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM
WITH ENHANCED PCPN REACHES THE NWRN US IN ABOUT A WEEK.

SCHICHTEL