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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1851Z Oct 14, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

VALID 12Z SAT OCT 18 2014 - 12Z WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER PATTERN SUPPORTS A CONTINUATION OF THE RIDGE/TROUGH
ORIENTATION OVER THE BERING/GULF IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. ONLY A SLOW
DRIFT EASTWARD OF THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST BY THE
ENSEMBLES. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF CLUSTER FAIRLY WELL WITH
THEIR RECENT ENSEMBLE MEANS /06Z AND 00Z/ SO THAT A BLEND OF THESE
FOUR MAINTAINED A DEFINED PRESSURE/WIND FIELD. GEFS NORMALIZED
ENSEMBLE SPREAD INDICATES LESS THAN AVERAGE SPREAD FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WHICH IS REALIZED BY SAID STRONGER GRADIENT.

LEAD SYSTEM IN THE GULF ON SAT/D4 SHOULD PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLE
EARLY SUN/D5 AS MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS NEARLY DUE SOUTHERLY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW VARIOUS FLAVORS OF EMBEDDED SFC LOWS
THAT COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT... GIVEN ITS SLOW MOVEMENT...
BUT THIS SHOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLE
PER THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING.

BUILDING RIDGING OVER THE BERING /THANKS TO UPSTREAM TROUGHING/
SHOULD HELP DIG ADDITIONAL ENERGY ACROSS THE AKPEN INTO THE
GULF... WHICH SUPPORTS A STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPING BY NEXT
TUE-WED/D7-8 PER THE THE ENSEMBLES. THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
SHOWS ABOUT A 985MB LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF... WITH ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS RANGING FROM THE 950S/960S TO THE 990S. AMPLIFIED PATTERN
BOTH UP AND DOWNSTREAM LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN TO A STRONGER SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD FOCUS OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL
REGIONS AS WELL AS THE ALEUTIANS /EARLIER IN THE FORECAST/.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE IN THE
INTERIOR... NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE WITH NO
ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION IN THE FORECAST... AND NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN AREAS DUE TO THE INFLUX OF
MID-LATITUDE AIR.


FRACASSO