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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1630Z Mar 17, 2015)
 
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1230 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

VALID 12Z SAT MAR 21 2015 - 12Z WED MAR 25 2015


THE MOST RECENT GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT OVER THE
EASTERN GULF/PANHANDLE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THOUGH SOME
COMFORT CAN BE TAKEN FROM THE REASONABLE SIMILARITY BETWEEN THE
ECENS AND NAEFS MEAN DURING THAT DAY-3/4 TIME FRAME. MODEL
AGREEMENT DOES NOT IMPROVE MUCH THEREAFTER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF, SO AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH SHOULD COVER THE BASES AS WELL AS
CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE NEXT ENERGETIC
WAVE PACKET STREAKING JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK
IS PROBABLY BEST HANDLED BY A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE--WITH
THE ECENS MEAN NEARLY FIVE DEGREES SOUTH OF THE NAEFS MEAN. THE
GFS HAS BEEN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH
THIS WAVE PACKET, BUT HAS TRENDED MARKEDLY SOUTHWARD WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE RUN. BELIEVE THAT KEEPING THE BERING SEA CLEAR OF MOST
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS THE BEST BET. ONCE THE BULK OF THE
WAVE PACKET PASSES 160E NEXT TUESDAY, IT SHOULD BULGE SLIGHTLY
POLEWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF WHERE IT WILL APPARENTLY FIND A
LITTLE MORE "HEADROOM."


CISCO