Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Air Quality
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1823Z Sep 09, 2014)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
View Alaska Map


ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
223 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2014

VALID 12Z SAT SEP 13 2014 - 12Z WED SEP 17 2014

THE NORTH PACIFIC HAS YET TO BE SORTED OUT IN THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES. END RESULT IS A RATHER STATIONARY UPPER LOW
SITUATED OVER BRISTOL BAY IN THE SE BERING SEA AND SLOWLY
RETREATING RIDGING OVER WESTERN CANADA. THE INFUSION OF NOW
TROPICAL STORM FENGSHEN HAS LESS SUPPORT FOR FULL-BLOWN
CYCLOGENESIS BUT RATHER A MODEST... BUT STILL RESPECTABLE...
INCORPORATION OF THE REMNANTS INTO THE IN SITU UPPER LOW.
HOW/WHERE THE SFC EVOLVES IS YET TO BE SEEN AS THE SPREAD IN
DISTANCE AMONG THE ENSEMBLES EXCEEDS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EVEN
BEFORE SAT/D4. THEREAFTER... THE ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE
UPPER PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A SLOWLY PROGRESSING SFC BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE GULF THAT MAY OR MAY NOT FEATURE ONE OR MORE SFC WAVES
RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY /THOUGH THE PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT THAT
AS WELL/. THE 12Z GFS ALONG WITH THE 00Z ECENS MEAN OFFERS THE
PATH OF LEAST REGRET TODAY... WHILE THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS
SHOW TOO MANY RECENT CHANGES. PRECIPITATION SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS INTO THE PANHANDLE... AND PARTICULARLY THE
EASTERN KENAI /PER THE GFS AND ECENS PROBABILITIES/ WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.


FRACASSO