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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1852Z Apr 11, 2015)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

VALID 12Z WED APR 15 2015 - 12Z SUN APR 19 2015

THE 11/00Z ECENS AND.DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SERVED AS THE BASELINE
BLEND FOR THE ALASKA MEDIUM RANGE PACKAGE. THE CURRENT MEDIUM
RANGE REMAINS PRETTY STRAIGHT-FORWARD AND WILL BE AN ACTIVE
SENSIBLE WEATHER SCENARIO ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST...THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PANHANDLE.

THESE CHOICES WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A SERIES OF RATHER DEEP
SURFACE CYCLONES WITH BROAD/EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
SCENARIOS SPREADING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA....SOUTH COAST AND PANHANDLE.

THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECENS AND GEFS CONTINUE TO WIDEN THE
SPREAD---BUT THE GEFS-GFS APPEAR TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH AND TOO FAST
(AT TIMES) WITH THESE CYCLONES AND THEIR STORM TRACKS TO BE
INCLUDED IN THE WPC FORECAST. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE CANADIAN
MODEL SOLUTION IS PROBABLY THE CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF FROM DAY 4 TO
DAY 7.

WILL HAVE TIME TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MOVING FORWARD...AND
BELIEVE THE MODELS WILL BE 'LOCKING IN' SOON WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF
THE DAY 7-8 WAVE AND NATURE OF  THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.

VOJTESAK