Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Air Quality
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1859Z Apr 11, 2014)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
View Alaska Map


ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014

VALID 12Z TUE APR 15 2014 - 12Z SAT APR 19 2014

...PATTERN OVERVIEW...GUIDANCE AND UNCERTAINTY
ASSESSMENT...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

LEAD ERN GULF OF AK MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY
BE RE-ENERGIZED AS PER THE RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF BY DAYS
5/6 WED/THU JUST OFF SERN AK ALONG WITH ENHANCED SURFACE LOW AND
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.  MIDWEEK LOW DEVELOPMENT SPECIFICS ARE
VARIED AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT IS MIXED THOUGH...LENDING ABOVE NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY.  WPC PROGS SHOW A MODEST LOW FOR NOW CONSIDERING
CONTINUITY CHANGE.

FURTHER NORTH...SEVERAL UNCERTAIN IMPULSES EFFECT NRN AK NEXT WEEK
BUT RUN TO RUN VARIANCE AND FORECAST SPREAD REMAINS SIGNIFICANT
WITH NONE THAT WELL SUPPORTED INDIVIDUALLY BY ENSEMBLES THAT HOLD
ONTO MORE MEAN RIDGING OVER THE REGION AND DOWN INTO THE INTERIOR.
ACCORDINGLY HAVE DOWNPLAYED INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM DEPICTIONS AND
EFFECTS BUT STILL OFFER SOME EMBEDDED SYSTEM WIGGLES ALOFT.

MEANWHILE...A POTENT TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ENERGIES FOCUSING EARLY-MID
WEEK NEAR THE ALEUTIANS WORK STEADILY EASTWARD AND INTO THE GULF
OF AK DAYS 6-8 / THU-NEXT SAT.  THIS SYSTEM OFFERS WELL ORGANIZED
LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH MODEST PCPN POTENTIAL SPREADING FROM THE
ALEUTIANS AND SW AK INTO A QUITE UNSETTLED GULF WHERE ENERGIES
COMBINE WITH THE LEAD SYSTEM ENVIRONMENT.  THE DEEP SYSTEM THEN
HOLDS OFFSHORE WITH MUCH LESSER EFFECT INLAND THROUGH SRN/SERN AK
INTO THE INTERIOR AS SHIELDED BY THE LINGERING MID-UPPER LEVEL
MEAN RIDGE. 

PREFERRED A SOLUTION ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED SIDE OF THE ENTIRE
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST ENVELOPE YESTERDAY AFTER CONSIDERATION
OF UPSTREAM SYSTEM ENERGIES BOTH COMING OFF ASIA AND OVER THE
ARCTIC EVIDENT IN MOST GUIDANCE AND AS PER LEAD-IN TRENDS FROM
GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  TODAYS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TOWARD THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION FAIRLY WELL OVERALL.

ACCORDINGLY...WPC ALASKAN MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES
AND 500 MB PROGS ALONG WITH OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN
PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC GFS/00 UTC ECMWF AND
GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS...LEANING MORE ON THE MEANS ESPECIALLY BY
DAYS 6-8.

SCHICHTEL