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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1801Z Nov 14, 2014)
 
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
101 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2014

VALID 12Z TUE NOV 18 2014 - 12Z SAT NOV 22 2014


THE RETROGRESSION AND LIFTING OF THE BLOCKING UPPER HIGH FROM THE
YUKON TOWARD SIBERIA AT THE MEDIUM RANGE IS LEADING THE MODELS A
MERRY CHASE SORTING THE FLOW IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. THERE ARE MANY DISCONTINUITIES AND WILD TANGENTS
AMONG THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF.
EVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ADD LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIRECTION, WITH
THE LATITUDE OF MAJOR SURFACE LOW CENTERS DIFFERING AS MUCH AS TEN
DEGREES. PREFER THE ECENS MEAN OVER THE GEFS SINCE IT GRADUALLY
DEEMPHASIZES THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE BERING SEA AS A POWERFUL JET
AND ASSOCIATED WAVE TRAIN ARE FORGED TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


CISCO