Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1927Z Jan 17, 2015)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
View Alaska Map


ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2015

VALID 12Z WED JAN 21 2015 - 12Z SUN JAN 25 2015

THE LATEST ROUND OF WPC ALASKAN MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE
FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE
WEATHER GRIDS HAVE AGAIN BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF
THE 06 UTC GEFS MEAN...00 UTC ECMWF/NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND
SUBSEQUENT MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MAINTAIN BEST POSSIBLE WPC
CONTINUITY INCLUDING SURFACE LOW DEPTHS. SOME 00 UTC ECMWF WAS
ALSO INCLUDED IN THE WPC BLEND EVEN THOUGH DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
FORECAST SPREAD HAS INCREASED. THIS WAS PRIMARILY ADDED DAY 4 /
WEDNESDAY TO PROVIDE BETTER ANCHORAGE/JUNEAU WFO CONTINUITY OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA. OTHERWISE...THE ENSEMBLES AGAIN SEEM MORE
COMPATABLE AND RUN-RUN CONSISTENT THAN DETERMINISTIC MODEL
GUIDANCE...AND AN ENSEMBLE BASED COMPOSITE FIELD SEEM BEST FAVORED
AS PER COORDINATION.

A COOLING AND UNSETTLING LEAD MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOSED TROUGH
LINGERS EVEN LONGER NOW DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC INTO THE ERN BERING
SEA/WRN AK THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH LIGHT PCPN INLAND
TO THE INTERIOR. THIS SYSTEM NUDGES A MID-UPPER RIDGE BUILT
NORTHWESTWARD FROM WRN CANADA TO THE ERN ALASKAN INTERIOR.

FARTHER SOUTH...ENERGIES ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER
LEVEL PACIFIC LOW/TROUGHS AND DEEP ASSOCIATED LEAD SURFACE LOWS
SHOULD WORK FROM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE GULF OF AK NEXT
WEEK UNDERNEATH THE INLAND RIDGE. DETAILS AT MID-SMALLER SCALE
HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN...BUT THE PATTERN DOES VERY
MUCH OVERALL FAVOR REPEAT HEAVY SRN/SERN AK PCPN POTENTIAL ALL
NEXT WEEK.

SCHICHTEL