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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1845Z Sep 12, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

VALID 12Z TUE SEP 16 2014 - 12Z SAT SEP 20 2014

THE EMERGING UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE IN THE BERING SEA GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND BETWEEN DAY 4 AND DAY 5.

THE 12/00Z GEFS-ECENS MEANS INTENSIFY THE BROAD CYCLONE IN THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA IN MID-AUTUMN FORM---SENDING A SERIES OF
FRONTAL PASSAGES (WARM, COLD AND OCCLUDED) ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE...SOUTH COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR OF CANADA. THE
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE SUFFICIENTLY AFTER DAY 5 TO
EXCLUDE THEM FROM THE WPC GRAPHICS---BUT THEY DO ILLUSTRATE THE
SUBTLE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE.

THOUGHT THE MEANS HANDLED THE BROAD-SCALE SEQUENCE OF
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONTS SUFFICIENTLY...THOUGH THE WIND FIELDS WILL
LIKELY BE UNDERDONE. RATHER THAN TRY TO CHASE A PARTICULAR
SOLUTION AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF RUN-TO-RUN ERRORS IN THIS
SOMEWHAT-VOLATILE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN...WILL USE THE
STABILITY OF THE MEANS TO KEEP THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE WIND PATTERN
'MOVING' ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA...AND DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT.

THAT SAID---THE CURRENT DAY 4-8 500MB AND SURFACE GRAPHICS EASILY
MAINTAINED CONTINUITY AND CAPTURED THE GENERAL SENSIBLE WEATHER
PATTERN---INCLUDING THE MEDIUM RANGE POP FORECASTS AND A
BREEZY/WINDY PATTERN.

VOJTESAK