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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1812Z Nov 18, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
112 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

VALID 12Z SAT NOV 22 2014 - 12Z WED NOV 26 2014


FORTUNATELY, THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF RECOVERED FROM ITS "OFF" 12Z/17
RUN WITH THE ADVENT OF THE 00Z/18 DATA PACKAGE--ENOUGH SO THAT IT
SHOULD SERVE WELL AS A SYNOPTIC BASE THROUGH ABOUT 144 HOURS. BY
MID-PERIOD, THE VERY COMPLEX, ENERGETIC STREAM PASSING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO WARRANT A HEDGED APPROACH TO
FORECASTING, WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECENS MEAN
AFFORDING A MIDDLE GROUND. AFTER 192 HOURS, THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
STRAINS THE LIMITS OF ITS ATTENDANT MEAN TO THE EXTENT THAT
SWITCHING TO THE MEAN ITSELF SEEMS MOST PRUDENT. THE GFS, PARALLEL
GFS, AND GEFS MEANS ARE STILL MARKED BY GREAT
VOLATILITY--PRECLUDING THEIR INCORPORATION INTO THE MANUAL BLEND.


CISCO