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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1807Z Nov 15, 2014)
 
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
107 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2014

VALID 12Z WED NOV 19 2014 - 12Z SUN NOV 23 2014


THE RETROGRESSION AND LIFTING OF THE BLOCKING UPPER HIGH FROM THE
YUKON TOWARD SIBERIA AT THE MEDIUM RANGE IS STILL LEADING THE
MODELS A MERRY CHASE SORTING THE FLOW IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THERE ARE MANY DISCONTINUITIES AND
WILD TANGENTS AMONG THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF BOTH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND ECMWF. EVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ADD LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
DIRECTION, WITH THE LATITUDE OF MAJOR SURFACE LOW CENTERS
DIFFERING AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES. PREFER THE ECENS MEAN OVER THE
GEFS SINCE IT GRADUALLY DEEMPHASIZES THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
BERING SEA AS A POWERFUL JET AND ASSOCIATED WAVE TRAIN ARE FORGED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.


CISCO