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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1806Z Mar 19, 2015)
 
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
206 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2015

VALID 12Z MON MAR 23 2015 - 12Z FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPER PATTERN FROM ASIA INTO THE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO TREND
TOWARD MORE AMPLIFICATION... STEMMING FROM VERY STRONG RIDGING
OVER CHINA EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL FAVOR DIGGING TROUGHING
ALONG/EAST OF 180 AND THE DATELINE. DOWNSTREAM AFFECT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NORTH AMERICA WITH RIDGING FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE WESTERN SHORE AND TROUGHING AROUND 100W. ENSEMBLES HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH THE
GEFS MEMBERS REMAINING A BIT QUICKER AND TO THE NORTH OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. ONGOING PREFERENCE LIES WITH THE SLOWER
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN VIA THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN THOUGH A
MINORITY WEIGHTING OF THE GEFS AND NAEFS MEANS WAS USED AS A BASE
TO THE FORECAST.

OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SPECIFICS IN THE
FORECAST BUT HAVE WAVERED AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OVER THE PAST
FEW CYCLES SO ANY ONE RUN CANNOT REALLY BE DISCOUNTED COMPLETELY.
SUCH A STRONG SIGNAL FOR INCREASED RIDGING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BASICALLY HALT/SHEAR APART THE LEAD SYSTEM OF INTEREST.
ENSEMBLES TEND TO BE MORE CORRECT IN FORECASTING STRONG RIDGING
COMPARED TO STRONG TROUGHING AND GIVEN THE UPSTREAM PATTERN WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A TREND TOWARD MORE HEIGHT RISES IN W
CANADA IN SUCCESSIVE RUNS. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SPLIT RIDGE
LIKE THE CURRENT SETUP BUT RATHER A MORE COHESIVE FULL LATITUDE
RIDGE THAT SHOULD ACT AS A WALL OVER THE PANHANDLE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL... ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE INTERIOR. PRECIPITATION SHOULD FOCUS ALONG SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AREAS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS WELL AS THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE WITH THE APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING FRONT.


FRACASSO