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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1859Z Jul 24, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

VALID 12Z MON JUL 28 2014 - 12Z FRI AUG 01 2014

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FAVOR OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPMENT COMPRISED OF
SLOW MOVING CLOSED MEAN LOWS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE WRN
ALEUTIANS AND OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT BOOKEND AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO ACROSS
THE BERING SEA. RIDGE AMPLITUDE MEANWHILE FAVORS NRN STREAM
TROUGHING TO DIG FROM THE ARCTIC DOWN INTO THE N-CENTRAL INTERIOR.

IN LINE WITH YESTERDAY...THE 00 UTC JULY 24 ECMWF OFFERS A HIGH
RESOLUTION DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTION THAT WAS CORRELATED
CLOSELY ENOUGH WITH COMPATABLE 06 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00 UTC
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE TO MERIT INCLUSION IN A COMBINED
BLEND. THIS PROVIDES SOME ADDITIONAL SMALLER SCALE DETAIL
CONSISTENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL PREDICTABILITY IN AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WITH BELOW NORMAL FORECAST SPREAD.  THIS BLEND WAS USED AS
A BASIS FOR PRODUCTION OF THE ENTIRE WPC ALASKAN MEDIUM-RANGE
FORECAST PRODUCT SUITE.  THESE WELL CLUSTERED MODEL CHOICES
REPRESENT SOLUTIONS THAT
ARE ON THE SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED AND PERSISTENT SIDE OF THE FULL
ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE OMEGA BLOCK SET TO
ANCHOR OVER THE NRN/NERN PACIFIC. THESE AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS TEND TO
LINGER BY NATURE.

SCHICHTEL