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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1819Z Jul 16, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
219 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014

VALID 12Z SUN JUL 20 2014 - 12Z THU JUL 24 2014


THE DISINTEGRATION OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT RANGE IS,
OF COURSE, NOT COMFORTING FOR SORTING OUT THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH
ANY DEGREE OF ACCURACY. IN SOME WAYS, THOUGH, THERE IS HOPE IN ALL
THE MURK. UNTIL ABOUT THIS PAST MONDAY JULY 14, THE GLOBAL
NUMERICAL MODELS WERE INDICATING AN UNSETTLED--EVEN STORMY--PERIOD
AHEAD FOR THE ALASKA REGION. THE THEN-PROMISED WET OUTLOOK WOULD
HAVE COME ABOUT VIA A FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT IN THE FLOW REGIME ACROSS
ALASKA'S ARC OF THE HIGH LATITUDES--NAMELY, A BREAKING DOWN OF THE
PERSISTENT BLOCKING SIGNAL THAT HAS RULED THE NORTH AMERICAN
CONTINENT SINCE LATE LAST FALL. THE DISCONCERTING SHUFFLING OF THE
MODELS SINCE MONDAY MARKS, IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, THE RESOLUTION OF
THE RETURN OF THE BLOCK. VIEWED FROM THAT PERSPECTIVE, IT IS ONLY
NATURAL THAT THE MODELS ARE BEING LEAD A MERRY CHASE--FLIPFLOPPING
FROM PHASED STREAMS TO THE ORDERLY, NO MAN'S LAND CHARACTERISTIC
OF BLOCKS. IT IS IN THIS SENSE THAT THE RATHER DULL MANUAL CHARTS
FOR MUCH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD MAY PROVE A SAFER BET THAN
THE SHORT RANGE FREE FOR ALL.


CISCO