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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1844Z Aug 14, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
244 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2014

VALID 12Z MON AUG 18 2014 - 12Z FRI AUG 22 2014

THE WPC ALASKAN MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE HAS BEEN PRIMARILY
DERIVED FROM AN EQUALLY WEIGHTED BLEND OF 12 UTC GFS WITH THE 06
UTC GFS/00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. THESE REASONABLY COMPATABLE
GUIDANCE PIECES OFFER A FLOW PATTERN EVOLUTION THAT OVERALL SEEMS
DECENTLY CLUSTERED AND IN LINE WITH PRIOR WPC GUIDANCE. THIS SEEMS
FORTUNATE IN A FORECAST PERIOD WITH OTHERWISE CONSIDERABLE RUN TO
RUN DETERMINITSIC MODEL VARIANCE WITH EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE
SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY EVIDENT OVER UNCERTAIN ADJOINING ALASKAN
WATERS.

THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD STILL HIGHLIGHT THE WEAKENING
ROTATION OF LEAD GULF OF AK SYSTEM ENERGIES AND HEAVIER PCPN
INLAND ACROSS SRN/SERN AK AND TO A MUCH LESSER EXTENT INTO THE AK
INTERIOR AS NEW POTENT TROUGH/LOW ENERGIES DIG BACK INTO THE
BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS. THIS RETROGRADES AN AMPLIFYING MEAN TROUGH
MORE EARNESTLY THERE NEXT WEEK...WITH MODEST LEADING SYSTEMS THEN
ABLE TO THEN DEVELOP AND LIFT DOWNSTREAM BACK UP INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

SCHICHTEL