Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Air Quality
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1815Z Oct 15, 2014)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
View Alaska Map


ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
215 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014

VALID 12Z SUN OCT 19 2014 - 12Z THU OCT 23 2014

ENSEMBLE STILL SUGGESTS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE RIDGE/TROUGH
PATTERN OVER NE RUSSIA/GULF OF ALASKA... RESPECTIVELY. DIVERGENCE
STARTS TO BECOME MORE APPARENT BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WHEN THE GEFS
MEMBERS GENERALLY MOVE THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE NAEFS MEAN LIES IN BETWEEN... ABOUT
2/3 CLOSER TO THE ECENS THAN THE GEFS MEAN. VERIFICATION USUALLY
SIDES WITH A SLOWER RATHER THAN FASTER SOLUTION CONSIDERING THE
UP/DOWNSTREAM PATTERN... WHICH IS AMPLIFIED... AND PREFERRED TO
TREND TOWARD THE ECENS/NAEFS SOLUTION BY NEXT WED-THU.

12Z GFS CLUSTERED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE 00Z ECENS MEAN AND 06Z GEFS
MEAN WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE ALEUTIANS THAT SHOULD HEAD
TOWARD THE GULF... THOUGH A BIT QUICKER THAN FORECAST 24 HRS AGO.
ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BACKED OFF ON AMOUNT OF PHASING IN THE GULF
DUE TO THE FORECAST TIMING DIFFERENCES... BUT STILL INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF A RESPECTABLE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK THAT SHOULD PUSH
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WHILE THE PARENT LOW MEANDERS IN THE GULF.

IN THE BERING... SLOWING TREND IN THE ECMWF SUPPORTS THE SLOWER
ECENS MEAN OVER THE QUICKER GEFS MEAN... BUT HAVE TEMPERED IT WITH
A 1/3 NAEFS WEIGHTING SINCE THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLE
SPREAD UPSTREAM OVER ASIA... NOT TO MENTION WELL SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS AS THE REMNANTS OF TS ANA MAY GET ENTRAINED INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE FLOW.


FRACASSO