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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1730Z Dec 11, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1230 PM EST THU DEC 11 2014

VALID 12Z MON DEC 15 2014 - 12Z FRI DEC 19 2014

...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN UP INTO ALASKA...

THE LATEST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OFFER A REASONABLY SIMILAR LARGER
SCALE MEDIUM RANGE FLOW EVOLUTION THAT OFFERS AVERAGE OR BETTER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND CONTINUITY. THIS FLOW IS HIGHLIGHTED ALOFT
BY AN UNSETTLING MEAN BERING SEA TROUGH THAT WEAKENS OVER
TIME...AMPLE LEAD LOW ENERGIES CUTTING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND SPREADING HEAVIER PCPN/WINDS INTO SRN/SERN AK UNDERNEATH
GENERALLY BENIGN AND MODERATING WRN CANADIAN TO ALASKAN INTERIOR
MEAN RIDGING...AND SUBSEQUENT UPSTREAM DEEP LOW DEVELOPMENT AND
WEATHER/WAVES OUT FROM THE N-CENTRAL PACIFIC TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS
AND VICINITY IN ABOUT A WEEK OR SO. 

THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS CHARACTERISTICALLY DIFFER MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH LESS PREDICTABLE EMBEDDED AND LOCAL WEATHER
FOCUSING SMALLER SCALE EMBEDDED FEATURES. THIS SUGGESTS PREFERENCE
FOR AN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST APPROACH AND THE 00 UTC ECMWF/NAEFS
MEANS SEEM WELL CLUSTERED. BLENDED THESE GUIDANCE OPTIONS FOR
PRIMARY DERIVATION OF THE WPC ALASKAN SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND
500 MB PROGS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. LEANED
A BIT HEAVIER ON THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN THAT MAINTAINS SLIGHTLY
BETTER WPC CONTINUITY.

SCHICHTEL