Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Air Quality
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1933Z Sep 25, 2014)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
View Alaska Map


ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
333 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2014

VALID 12Z MON SEP 29 2014 - 12Z FRI OCT 03 2014

WPC ALASKAN MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS
AND ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS WERE PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM
A BLEND OF THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.

HOWEVER...THE NEWER 12 UTC ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED MORE IN ERNEST
TOWARD THE BUILDING OF A SHARPER NRN BERING SEA/STRAIT MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DAY4/MON THAT ALLOWS ORGANIZED LOW TRACK OFF THE NORTH
SLOPE MON AND TRAILING AND INCREASED DOWNSTREAM ENERGY DIG SEWD
THROUGH THE COOLING INTERIOR THEN MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12 UTC
GFS. THIS DOES NOT BOLSTER CONFIDENCE IN THE PREVIOUSLY RELEASED
WPC SURFACE/500 MB SYSTEM DEPICTION INTO DAY5/WED PROGS THAT MAY
IN RETROSPECT NEEDED TO SHOW AN ORGANIZED AND PROGRESSIVE NERN
GULF OF AK LOW WITH HEAVIER IMPLIED SERN AK PCPN/WIND POTENTIAL.
WPC PROGS EARLIER DOWNPLAYED THIS MORE ROBUST GFS SOLUTION GIVEN
SYSTEM CONTINUITY AND COORDINATION...BUT THE SUPPORTING RIDGE DOES
APPEAR TO BE BUILDING IN UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR LOOPS IN ADVANCE OF
NERN ASIAN SLOWED LOW/TROUGH APPROACH. IT SEEMS THE LATEST 12 UTC
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS COULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON AT LEAST THIS
EMERGING TREND.

UPSTREAM...CURRENT WEST PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM KAMMURI IS FORECAST
TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH AND THEN TRANSITION TO A POTENT
EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NRN PACIFIC BY DAY5/TUE. THE 00 UTC
ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BEST MATCHED THIS FORECAST AND LEAD TO A
SUBSEQUENT DEEP LOW TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TO THE
GULF OF AK DAYS 6-8...AND POSSIBLE TRAILING LOW DEVELOPMENT. THERE
IS CERTAINLY ROOM FOR FUTURE ADJUSTMENT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AT THESE
LONGER TIME FRAMES FOR THIS WEATHER THREAT.

SCHICHTEL