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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1839Z Feb 25, 2015)
 
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
139 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VALID 12Z SUN MAR 01 2015 - 12Z THU MAR 05 2015

THE ALASKA MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CONTINUED TO RELY UPON A BLEND OF
THE ECENS/NAEFS MEANS. FOR THE 25/00Z FORECAST CYCLE---THE 25/00Z
ECENS/NAEFS MEANS SUPPORT A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE WINTER STORM
TRACK--- AND INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND NORTHERN ALASKA. THE
TRANSITION BEGINS IN THE DAY 4 TIME FRAME---WITH A LEAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATING FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE ARCTIC
CIRCLE FROM 140W INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THE TRANSITION
APPEARS TO BE COMPLETED IN THE DAY 7 TIME FRAME...AFTER A SECOND
UPPER-TROUGH MIGRATES FROM THE DATELINE TO 140W AND DE-AMPLIFIES
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SUPPRESSES THE QUASI-STATIONARY
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 55N 140W. BETWEEN DAY 6 AND DAY 8...A
FAST-ZONAL ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL---WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVES
TRANSITING THE INTERIOR AND GULF OF ALASKA.

THIS LOW-AMPLITUDE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE---BRINGS
A TEMPORARY END TO THE HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW---THAT HAS PLAGUED
THE GULF OF ALASKA FOR MANY WEEKS. OVERALL...THIS WILL BRING AN
END TO MILDER AIR OVER THE STATE---WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF
MIGRATORY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING---GRADUALLY MODIFYING THE WARMTH
WITH A MIX OF MERGING CLOUD LAYERS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. 

THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
THE GEFS CONTINUES TO BE THE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION FROM THE
DATELINE EASTWARD BETWEEN 50N-60N---BOTH IN THE BERING SEA AND
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC VERSUS THE ECENS MEANS. THOUGHT THE
INCORPORATION OF THE NAEFS (AGAIN TODAY) REPRESENTS A GOOD MIDDLE
GROUND FOR EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL ENERGY INJECTING INTO THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH---ALONG AND DOWNSTREAM OF 150W LONGITUDE AND
IMPINGING UPON THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. IF AND WHEN THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE 'RE-APPEARS' OR DISAPPEARS FROM THE EASTERN GULF
AND PANHANDLE---REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THIS ALASKA MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST PACKAGE.

VOJTESAK