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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1723Z Oct 13, 2014)
 
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
123 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

VALID 12Z FRI OCT 17 2014 - 12Z TUE OCT 21 2014


THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF--WITH A MINOR EXCEPTION OR TWO--HAS BEEN
ROCK STEADY IN ITS DEPICTION OF THE FLOW ACROSS THE ALASKA REGION
AS THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON VONGFONG DISPERSE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. THE GFS HAD TRACKED THE POST-TROPICAL CENTER OF
VONGFONG TO THE NORTH OF THE ALEUTIANS, BUT HAS COME INTO
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF. THE FUNDAMENTAL IMPACT OF VONGFONG'S
DISPERSION WILL BE TO SHARPEN--AND EFFECTIVELY RETROGRADE--THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER ALASKA'S CORNER OF THE PACIFIC. THE
RETROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO WARM, MOIST AIR
FROM THE LOWER LATITUDES INTO THE PANHANDLE, WITH INCREASING
CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH SHORTWAVE.


CISCO