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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1831Z Aug 15, 2014)
 
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
231 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014

VALID 12Z TUE AUG 19 2014 - 12Z SAT AUG 23 2014

TODAYS WPC ALASKAN MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE HAS BEEN PRIMARILY
DERIVED FROM BLEND OF 70% 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 30% 00
UTC ECMWF ADDED TO INJECT BETTER DETAIL AS SEEMINGLY CONSISTENT
WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY.
THESE ARE REASONABLY COMPATABLE BEYOND THE LESS PREDICTABLE
SMALLER SCALE SPECIFICS. THEY ALSO OFFER A FLOW PATTERN EVOLUTION
THAT OVERALL IS IN LINE WITH PRIOR WPC GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SEEMS FORTUNATE IN A FORECAST PERIOD WITH
OTHERWISE CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN DETERMINITSIC MODEL VARIANCE
WITH EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE SYSTEMS.

MODEL ISSUES REMAIN ESPECIALLY EVIDENT OVER THE GULF OF AK/NERN
PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE
FLIPPED-FLOPPED SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WPC
SURFACE PROGS AGAIN OFFER MODEST LOW DEVELOPMENT CONSIDERING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT EXPECTED SUPPORTING IMPULSE ENERGY ALOFT
LOOKS DYNAMIC NOW OVER/OFF NERN ASIA UPSTREAM.

LATER THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN HIGHLIGHTS LOW
ENERGIES DIGGING BACK INTO THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS AS HEIGHTS AND
SURFACE TEMPS GRADUALLY RISE OVER MUCH OF ALASKA. THIS RETROGRADES
AN AMPLIFYING MEAN TROUGH MORE EARNESTLY INTO THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS...WITH ADDITIONAL MODEST LEADING SYSTEMS AND
SENSIBLE WEATHER/PCPN FOCUS ABLE TO STILL DEVELOP AND LIFT BACK UP
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.

SCHICHTEL