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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1805Z Jul 20, 2014)
 
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VALID 12Z THU JUL 24 2014 - 12Z MON JUL 28 2014

START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE HIGH LATITUDES...
FROM THE SEA OF OKHOTSK/WESTERN ALEUTIANS/GULF OF
ALASKA/NUNAVUT... RESPECTIVELY. MODELS/ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT... BETTER THAN AVERAGE... FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK IN THE
SLOWLY EVOLVING PATTERN. USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/06Z GEFS AND
00Z ECMWF/ECENS MEAN TO START. THE ECMWF/GFS WERE AGAIN ON THE
QUICKER SIDE TO PUSH THE INITIAL UPPER LOW OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA WHILE THE ENSEMBLES MAINTAINED A SLOWER LOWER
HEIGHTS/PRESSURES WEST OF THE PANHANDLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAVEAT MAY BE SOMETHING AKIN TO THE 12Z GFS WHERE THE LEAD SYSTEM
DOES PUSH EAST BUT IS REPLACED BY INCOMING ENERGY THAT FILLS THE
VOID IN THE GULF... BUT THESE DETAILS WILL NEED FURTHER SUPPORT
FROM OTHER MODELS FIRST.

IN THE ARCTIC... THERE IS NOW MUCH MORE SUPPORT FOR LOWER HEIGHTS
TO PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR FROM THE NW... PERHAPS DRIVING A SFC
FRONT TOWARD THE ALASKA RANGE INSTEAD OF BEING HUNG UP NEAR THE
BROOKS RANGE. THIS WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.

BY NEXT WEEKEND INTO MON/D8... TRENDED TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH MAINTAINED STRONGER UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
ALEUTIANS COMPARED TO THE GEFS MEAN. WITH A +3 STD DEV HEIGHT
ANOMALY AT 500MB THU/D4... THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE IN NO HURRY TO
BREAK DOWN.


FRACASSO