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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1745Z Mar 21, 2015)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
145 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015

VALID 12Z WED MAR 25 2015 - 12Z SUN MAR 29 2015

VERY STRONG RIDGING OVER CHINA/JAPAN AND BUILDING RIDGING OVER
WESTERN CONUS/CANADA WILL PROMOTE TROUGHING NEAR AND EAST OF THE
DATELINE LATE NEXT WEEK. MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE SHOWN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION WITH EXPECTED DETAIL
DIFFERENCES IN EACH DETERMINISTIC RUN. THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS MORE
OUT OF STEP -- MOSTLY QUICKER -- WITH THE ENSEMBLES COMPARED TO
THE 12Z GFS BUT OVERALL STILL LIES WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD.
USED A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS WITH THE 06Z GEFS AND 00Z
ECENS/NAEFS MEANS WHICH MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY. 

LEAD SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF AND
THEN PANHANDLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT WILL BE FIGHTING RIDGING TO ITS
EAST. HERE... THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT. BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST... THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS ON FRIDAY AND TAKE THE MAIN SFC LOW TOWARD THE AKPEN.
HERE THE ECMWF REMAINS MUCH QUICKER THAN THE ENSEMBLES TO START
BUT THEN FALLS BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS AS IT
SLOWS DOWN ITS PROGRESSION. QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE MAIN LOW
HEADS TO BY NEXT SUNDAY... WITH THE ENSEMBLES SPLIT ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE AKPEN. LAST SYSTEM MAY ONLY BE SNEAKING INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS/BERING BY THEN... BUT AGAIN THE ECMWF WAS MUCH QUICKER
THAN THE ENSEMBLES.

WARM PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE STATE... WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ALONG THE ALEUTIANS... SOUTHERN COAST... INTO THE PANHANDLE
WHERE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIER THANKS TO A FAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY. GFS IS ON THE HEAVIER SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD BUT
NOT TOTALLY UNREASONABLE GIVEN PW VALUES FORECAST IN THE +2 STND
DEV RANGE.


FRACASSO