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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1845Z Apr 23, 2015)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

VALID 12Z MON APR 27 2015 - 12Z FRI MAY 01 2015

THE WPC ALASKAN MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE HAS BEEN PRIMARILY
DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE REASONABLY COMPATABLE 00 UTC
GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS DAYS 4-8 MONDAY-NEXT FRIDAY. THIS
WAS CONDUCTED AS PER ANCHORAGE/FAIRBANKS WFO COORDINATION AND
CONSIDERING GROWING DETERMINISTIC MODEL FORECAST SPREAD. WPC
FORECASTER APPLIED ADJUSTMENTS OFFER SLIGHTLY DEEPER OCEANIC LOWS
CONSISTENT WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. OVERALL...THIS
SOLUTION OFFERS GOOD WPC CONTINUITY.

LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...A PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS THE ONGOING SERIES OF NRN PAC/BERING SEA SYSTEMS FEEDING
INTO NERN PAC/GULK OF AK MEAN TROUGH/UPPER LOW. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR A PROLONGED PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODEST PCPN
INTO SRN/SERN ALASKA WITH DEEP CENTRAL GULF LOW WRAPPED MOISTURE.
DETAIL DIFFS ALOFT OVER THE MAINLAND STILL DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE SURFACE PATTERN WHICH SHOULD REFLECT
BROADLY BENIGN CYCLONIC FLOW NEXT WEEK. THESE FEATURES OFFER
PRETTY GOOD PREDICTABILITY.

ONE SUCH UPSTREAM SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE
S-CENTRAL BERING SEA MONDAY BEFORE FEEDING SEWD INTO THE LEAD GULF
OF AK MAIN MEAN TROUGH TUESDAY. LATEST SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
DISPLAY GREATER SPREAD WITH MORE VARIATION IN TIMING AND EXTENT TO
WHICH THE SYSTEM MAY GET SHEARED AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES FLATTER.
THE PREFERRED WPC BLEND MAINTAINS SOME ELEMENTS OF CONTINUITY AND
ALLOWS FOR MODEST ALEUTIAN PCPN POTENTIAL. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS YET
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM TRACKING SIMILARLY INTO AND ACROSS THIS
REGION NEXT TUE-FRI...ALBEIT WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR DETAILS
AT THIS LONGER TIME FRAME BUT WITH DECENT OVERALL SUPPORT.

SCHICHTEL