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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1847Z Dec 13, 2014)
 
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
147 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2014

VALID 12Z WED DEC 17 2014 - 12Z SUN DEC 21 2014

...STORMY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AK PANHANDLE...

THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE WILL BE RATHER BLOCKY IN NATURE
WITH CLOSED LOWS DOMINATING THE PICTURE. THE INITIAL UPPER LOW OF
INTEREST IS ONE MIGRATING EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC
ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER AS
NOTED IN THE 12Z GFS. THIS BROUGHT IT MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
00Z ECMWF WHICH ARE BOTH WELL REFLECTED BY THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
MEANS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH WFO ANCHORAGE...IT WAS AGREED UPON
THAT A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF APPEARED SUITABLE FOR THE
DAY 4/5 TIMEFRAME. TO THE NORTH...THE FLOW IS MUCH MORE
COMPLICATED AS A SERIES OF SMALLER-SCALE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AK. MOVING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A BROAD BLOCK
WITH EAST-WEST RIDGING EXTENDING INTO EASTERN AK WHILE CLOSED LOWS
ANCHOR THIS FEATURE TO THE NORTH/SOUTH. THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH
SHOULD BE RATHER DOMINANT WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGESTING SURFACE
PRESSURES BELOW 968 MB. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE...WPC LEANED ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR DAYS 6-8.
THOUGHT THE 06Z GEFS MEAN WAS TOO QUICK SO FOCUSED THE FORECAST ON
A MIX OF THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF/NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. OVERALL...THE
DEEP CYCLONES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL FAVOR VERY WET
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AK.


RUBIN-OSTER