Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Air Quality
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1856Z Sep 26, 2014)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
View Alaska Map


ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

VALID 12Z TUE SEP 30 2014 - 12Z SAT OCT 04 2014

FORECAST FOR THE HIGH LATITUDES SHOULD FEATURE BUILDING RIDGING
RETROGRADING OUT OF THE BERING SEA TOWARD FAR NE RUSSIA. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TROUGHING TO DIG INTO MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA FROM
THE NORTHEAST /GENERALLY THE ARCTIC/. AT THE SAME TIME... TROPICAL
STORM KAMMURI IS FORECAST TO RECURVE EAST OF JAPAN AND SWING INTO
THE NW PACIFIC NEXT WEEK BUT ITS FUTURE REMAINS UNCERTAIN EVEN
BEFORE THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS.

FOR SE AK... A SEPARATED TROUGH ALONG 155E SHOULD SEND ITS
SOUTHERN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD
BE REFLECTED AS A DEEPENING SURFACE SYSTEM... PROBABLY A BENT BACK
OCCLUSION / T-BONE STRUCTURE...  MOVING TOWARD THE PANHANDLE BY
LATE NEXT WEEK. ON ITS HEELS MAY BE THE REMNANTS OF TS KAMMURI...
BUT ITS TRACK IS STILL QUITE UP IN THE AIR. THE JTWC/JMA FORECASTS
ARE SLOWER THAN ALL THE MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEANS... AND SHOULD A
SLOWER SOLUTION VERIFY... THEN THE ROBUST TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG
THROUGH THE SEA OF OKHOTSK BY TUE/D4 MAY BE ABLE TO PICK IT UP AND
GUIDE IT NORTHWARD PER THE 12Z/25 ECMWF RATHER THAN IT BEING
QUICKER AND ABLE TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND OUTRUN THE TROUGH PER THE
GFS/ECMWF. TIMING IS EVERYTHING... AND THE TRUTH IS IT IS TOO
CLOSE TO CALL JUST YET. LATEST 12Z/26 ECMWF STILL ALLOWS IT TO
SLIDE EASTWARD LIKE ITS EARLIER RUN. ASSUMING KAMMURI'S REMNANTS
MOVE EASTWARD... THIS SHOULD HELP SLOW THE PATTERN IN THE GULF...
AND POSSIBLY ALLOW A SFC WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.
MAIN/LEAD PARENT LOW SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE NE GULF WITH A STIFF
EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
FOCUS OVER THE PANHANDLE... PERHAPS UP TO A COUPLE INCHES PER THE
ENSEMBLES IN THE SOUTHERN REACHES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE
DOWNTURN IN THE INTERIOR WITH TROUGHING SETTLING IN.


FRACASSO