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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1843Z Oct 16, 2014)
 
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
243 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

VALID 12Z MON OCT 20 2014 - 12Z FRI OCT 24 2014

THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE FROM 6 DAYS AGO (10/00Z CYCLE) HAS ESSENTIALLY
CAPTURED THE REMNANTS OF 'VONGFONG' AND THE PROJECTED STORM TRACK
FROM THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. OBVIOUSLY, THE SPEED OF THE FLOW ALOFT DID
GENERATE SOME DOWNSTREAM DIFFERENCES...BUT THE PRIMARY
ENERGY---APPEARS ON SATELLITE---TO BE SKIRTING THE ALEUTIANS AND
APPROACHING THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA.

LIKEWISE...THE LONGWAVE APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP ALONG
140W---EXTENDING EQUATORWARD TO 35 NORTH LATITUDE. WOULD
ANTICIPATE THE 16/00Z ECENS AND GEFS TO BE RELIABLE PIECES OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS...UNTIL ANOTHER TROPICAL
SYSTEM---NORTHWEST OF HAWAI'I MAKES AN ATTEMPT TO BECOME PART OF
THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN. AT THIS POINT...THE GEFS IS A
SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH ENTRAINMENT OF SUBTROPICAL ENERGY
VERSUS THE ECENS. THEIR DETERMINISTIC RUNS---MORE DIVERGENT THAN
THE MEANS/ENSEMBLES.

IN GENERAL...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOCUS---WIND AND
PRECIPITATION---CONCENTRATES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THE SOUTHERN
1/4TH OF THE INTERIOR SERVES AS THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN
COLD/DRY TO ITS NORTH...AND COLD...WET AND WINDY TO ITS
SOUTH---THROUGH DAY 6. AFTER DAY 6...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A
GRADUAL EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE LONGWAVE ('A SPLIT-FLOW')...BUT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA---SHIFTING THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY---INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA...THEN GRADUALLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CALIFORNIA AND THE MAINLAND. THAT TREND AND THE JET-LEVEL WIND
FORECAST (THE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR) MAY END UP LIMITING THE
SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION TO THE GULF OF ALASKA...BUT STAY TUNED.   

VOJTESAK