Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Air Quality
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1726Z Sep 27, 2014)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
View Alaska Map


ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
126 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VALID 12Z WED OCT 01 2014 - 12Z SUN OCT 05 2014

GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE CONVERGING ON A MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST
SOLUTION WITH A MORE DOMINANT AND BLOCKY HIGHER LATITUDE FLOW
UNDERCUT WITH AMPLE PACIFIC AND EX-TROPICAL SYSTEM ENERGY
HIGHLIGHTED BY KAMMURI FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST PACIFIC.
THE 12 UTC GFS SEEMS IN MUCH CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00 UTC
ECMWF ACROSS BOTH THE MID AND HIGH LATITUDES NEAR ALASKA FOR DAYS
4/5 WED/THU...SO A 50-50 BLEND OF THESE SEEMS ON THE RIGHT TRACK.
A BLEND SHOULD MITIGATE LINGERING AND LESS PREDICTABLE SMALLER
SCALE VARIANCE BUT MAINTAIN A WELL ESTABLISHED RIDGE ALOFT
CENTERED OVER THE BERING SEA SANDWICHED BY AMPLIFIED MEAN
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM.

LATER NEXT WEEK...THE 00 UTC ECMWF ACTUALLY BECOMES INCREASINGLY
OUT OF STEP WITH ITS SISTER ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
ACCORDINGLY...PREFER INSTEAD TO BLEND THE 12 UTC GFS WITH ITS
CLOSEST ENSEMBLE MATCH THAT HAPPENS TO BE THAT 00 UTC ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN. LEANED MORE ON THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH TIME GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY...BUT MAINTAINED REASONABLY GOOD OCEANIC SURFACE LOW
DEEPNESS CONSIDERING POTENTIALLY QUITE FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT.
THIS OVERALL LEADS TO PRETTY GOOD WPC CONTINUITY WITH MOST
FEATURES INCLUDING A PATTERN FAVORING UNSETTLED AND COOLING
WEATHER DOWN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MUCH OF THE STATE AND LEAD
SRN STREAM LOW FOCUSING HEAVY PCPN FOCUSING INTO SERN ALASKA.

SCHICHTEL