Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Air Quality
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1827Z Jul 19, 2014)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
View Alaska Map


ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VALID 12Z WED JUL 23 2014 - 12Z SUN JUL 27 2014

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG RIDGE TO
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY THE START OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD... WED/D4. 500MB STANDARDIZED HEIGHT ANOMALIES
RISE TO +3 IN THE ENSEMBLES MEAN AS LATE AS FRI/D6 WHICH IS AN
INCREDIBLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR THAT LEAD TIME. THE DOWNSTREAM
RESPONSE WILL BE TROUGHING OVER THE GULF WITH A SLOWLY MOVING
UPPER LOW AND A WEAKENING SFC FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE.
THE FLOW OVER THE NORTH SHOULD BE ACTIVE AS WELL WITH A
WELL-DEFINED WESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE STRONG RIDGE OUT OF
NORTHEASTERN RUSSIA. THIS SHOULD PUSH A BOUNDARY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND THEN LINGER IT ALONG THE ARCTIC
CIRCLE.

THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES SHOW BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT... THANKS
TO THE DOMINANT RIDGING AND DEFINED FLOW... THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. A BLEND AMONG THE 12Z GFS/06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF/ECENS
MEAN OFFERED A GREAT STARTING POINT... ALBEIT A BIT SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF THAN WPC CONTINUITY.
TO THE NORTH... THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN TIMING THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THROUGH THE NORTH SLOPE EARLY IN THE FORECAST... BUT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SHOULD SUFFICE AS IT LIES NEAR AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPROMISE. BY NEXT WEEKEND... THE GFS IS PROBABLY
TOO QUICK TO BREAK DOWN OR AT LEAST PUSH THE RIDGING IN THE BERING
EASTWARD... AND THUS ALSO TOO QUICK TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW INTO THE
PANHANDLE. PREFER TO STAY WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF/ECENS/GEFS/NAEFS
IDEA GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL OVER THE INTERIOR
TOWARD THE NORTH SLOPE BUT ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS WITH
850MB TEMPS OVER 10C... OR ABOUT +1.5 STD DEV. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD FOCUS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS BUT
ALSO OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT EXAGGERATED N-S.


FRACASSO