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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1936Z Apr 21, 2015)
 
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
336 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

VALID 12Z SAT APR 25 2015 - 12Z WED APR 29 2015

THE WPC ALASKAN MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE HAS BEEN MAINLY DERIVED
FROM A BLEND OF THE REASONABLY COMPATABLE 12 UTC GFS/00 UTC ECMWF
VALID DAY 4 / SATURDAY. THIS ALLOWS FOR SLIGHTLY DEEPER GULF OF
ALASKA LOW DEVELOPMENT THAN WPC DEPICTED YESTERDAY AS CONSISTENT
WITH MODEL TRENDS AND SUPPORT. ALSO PREFER AS PER ANCHORAGE WFO
COORDINATION TO TRANSITION TO A GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE BASED
FORECAST SOLUTION BY NEXT MONDAY-WEDNESDAY AMID GROWING FORECAST
SPREAD...BUT WITH SOME FORECASTER APPLIED ADJUSTMENTS TO SHOW
SLIGHTLY DEEPER OCEANIC LOWS. OVERALL...THE RESULTANT SOLUTION
OFFERS GOOD WPC CONTINUITY.

THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE FCST REMAINS THE ONGOING SERIES OF
PROGRESSIVE NRN PAC/BERING SEA SYSTEMS FEEDING INTO NERN PAC MEAN
TROUGH/UPR LOW THAT SHOULD BECOME SOMEWHAT DEEPER BY THIS
WEEKEND...PLUS PSBL NERN PAC SYSTEM INTERACTION. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR A PROLONGED PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODEST PCPN
INTO SRN/SERN ALASKA WITH WRAPPED MOISTURE INFLOW.

DETAIL DIFFS ALOFT OVER THE MAINLAND DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE SFC PATTERN WHICH SHOULD REFLECT BROADLY
BENIGN CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD.

FOR THE SYSTEM REACHING THE BERING SEA BY SUN... LATEST SOLNS
STILL DISPLAY GREATER SPREAD WITH MORE VARIATION IN TIMING AND
EXTENT TO WHICH THE SYSTEM MAY GET SHEARED AS FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY
BECOMES MUCH FLATTER OVER THE WRN 2/3 OF THE PACIFIC. THE
PREFERRED BLEND HELPS TO MAINTAIN SOME ELEMENTS OF CONTINUITY AND
ALLOWS FOR SOME MODEST ALEUTIAN PCPN POTENTIAL.

SCHICHTEL