ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

VALID 12Z TUE JUN 18 2013 - 12Z SAT JUN 22 2013

ALASKA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WARM...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. 14/00Z
GEFS/EC/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES SOLIDLY SUPPORT THIS RIDGE
CONFIGURATION BEYOND DAY 8...ALTHOUGH THEIR DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THE FLOW OVER THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AND THE
RE-POSITIONING OF THE POLAR VORTEX NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
'BLOCKY' UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTER. IN TURN...THE DAY 7-8 SOLUTIONS
ARE FAR APART CONCERNING THE STRENGTH OF UNDERCUTTING FLOW AND
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST MAY BE IN ORDER UNTIL THE RIDGE HAS BEEN
DISPLACED.

THIS HIGH AND THE AIR TEMPERATURES BENEATH IT ARE DIRECTLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR...AND LOCALES NOT DOMINATED BY MARINE AND LARGE
TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES.

THE 'ABOVE NORMAL' TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
RIDGE'S AIRMASS PEAK ON TUESDAY. BUT TODAY...THE ENSEMBLES
FORECAST THESE ANOMALIES INTO WEDNESDAY (DAY 5). AT H85...IN THE
2.5-4.5 STANDARD DEVIATION FOR ALL BUT EXTREME EASTERN
ALASKA...INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE. AND AT H7...THE ANOMALIES ARE
2-4.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH DAY 5...AND EVEN
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PANHANDLE AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH DAY 8.

NOTING THAT KOTZEBUE HAD A RECORD HIGH (FOR JUNE 14TH) AND WAS 24F
ABOVE ITS NORMAL HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST TREND CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES AT/NEAR AND
OCCASIONALLY ABOVE RECORD LEVELS. BASED ON THE VERY WARM AIR IN
PLACE BENEATH THIS RIDGE...NOME AND BARROW TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY
BE NEXT SITES TO FALL. (BOTH WERE 24-26F ABOVE NORMAL ON THE 14TH
AND VERY CLOSE TO RECORDS).

VOJTESAK