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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1851Z Jan 23, 2015)
 
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
151 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

VALID 12Z TUE JAN 27 2015 - 12Z SAT JAN 31 2015


BOTH THE 12Z/22 AND 00Z/23 ECMWF BROKE CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM THE EUROPEAN CENTRE, INDICATING
SHARPLY DEEPENING CYCLONES HEADED STRAIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIAN CHAIN LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH THE OTHER GLOBAL NUMERICAL
MODELS STAYING THE COURSE WITH A GRADUAL SUPPRESSION OF THE STORM
TRACK ACROSS THE ALASKA REGION AT THE MEDIUM RANGE--VIA A NEW
BLOCKING REGIME--STRUGGLED TO FIND AN ENSEMBLE MEAN THAT FIT THE
BILL. TURNS OUT THAT THE 00Z/23 NAEFS MEAN AFFORDED A REASONABLE
TEMPLATE FOR WINDS AND PRESSURES, THOUGH THE SWITCH FROM EC-BASED
GUIDANCE TO NAEFS CAUSED A DISCONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
FOR TEMPERATURES, POPS, ET CETERA.


CISCO