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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1836Z Mar 23, 2015)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
View Alaska Map


ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
236 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

VALID 12Z FRI MAR 27 2015 - 12Z TUE MAR 31 2015

UPPER PATTERN SHOWS CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR A TROUGH/RIDGE SETUP
OVER THE NE PACIFIC. SYSTEM PROGRESSING TOWARD THE AKPEN BY
SATURDAY SHOULD DRIFT INTO THE SE BERING SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING.
THE 06Z GEFS AND 12Z GFS TURN IT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
BUT COULD SEE SOME SORT OF TRIPLE POINT LOW BEING MORE DOMINANT
THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED. REGARDLESS... THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD
ENCOUNTER RIDGING TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY AND WEAKEN OVER THE
PANHANDLE. SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ENSUE A RATHER WET PERIOD FOR SE
AK.

NEXT SYSTEM THAT ENTERS THE MAP IN THE FAR WESTERN BERING HAS BEEN
MORE PROBLEMATIC... AND TRENDED TOWARD A 00Z ECENS/NAEFS MEAN
BLEND TO DAMPEN THE RUN-TO-RUN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES
SEEN IN RECENT ECMWF/GFS RUNS. RECENT 06Z/12Z GFS RUNS LIE JUST A
BIT SLOWER THAN THE FCST WHILE THE ECMWF WAS QUICKER -- WHICH IT
HAS BEEN IN MANY RECENT RUNS WITH SEVERAL FEATURES. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR AND NEAR TO
JUST ABOVE AVERAGE ELSEWHERE.


FRACASSO