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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1934Z Oct 27, 2014)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
334 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

VALID 12Z FRI OCT 31 2014 - 12Z TUE NOV 04 2014

THERE IS GOOD CONTINUITY/AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEANS
WITH THE MEDIUM TO LARGER SCALE ASPECTS OF THE FCST.  THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF EACH SYSTEM. 

THE MODELS INDICATE THE WAVY FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG
TO MOVE ONSHORE AND WEAKEN FRI AS IT CROSSES THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UNDER A CLOSED LOW ALOFT IN THE
SOUTHERN BERING SEA. PHASING DIFFERENCES IN THE TROUGH ALOFT
RESULT IN TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES WITH THE SURFACE LOW
FRI INTO SAT.  THE 00-12Z ECMWF AND 06-12Z GFS ARE INDICATING AN
INTENSE LOW IN THE UPPER 960S TO LOWER 970 MB THU NIGHT THROUGH
FRI.


BY 12Z SUN BETTER AGREEMENT DEVELOPS AS THE SYSTEM RELOCATED INTO
THE GULF OF AK WITH LINGERING LOW PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
BERING.  ON MON 03 NOV THE LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS IN THE GULF WITH
BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN/06Z GFS/06Z GEFS MEAN ON THE AXIS/ORIENTATION OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THE 850 MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURES
LEANS 0.5-1 STD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL MON-TUE 03-04 NOV...SO A
COOLER THAN NORMAL PATTERN SHOULD RESULT.

THE 00Z ECMWF WAS AN OUTLIER WITH A 500 MB TROUGH/SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN AK.  THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS
ZONAL FLOW AND NO SFC LOW...AND IS PREFERRED.  SINCE THE FORECAST
WAS SENT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN AND WEAKENED THIS LOW ON DAY
8 AND SHUNTED IT FURTHER WEST.

UPSTREAM...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THE AMPLIFIED 500 MB RIDGE OVER
THE BERING SEA IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST MON-TUE 04 NOV.  A BLEND OF
THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS WAS USED TO
MITIGATE DIFFERENCES IN THE PATTERN. THE UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW OVER
NORTHEAST RUSSIA ENSURES A CONTINUING SLOW EVOLUTION OF THE
PATTERN.

PETERSEN