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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1756Z Aug 23, 2014)
 
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
156 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

VALID 12Z WED AUG 27 2014 - 12Z SUN AUG 31 2014

BUSY PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE OVER ALASKA...
WHICH TRENDS TOWARD POTENTIALLY RATHER DEEP TROUGHING INVADING AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE LARGELY SETTLED DOWN FROM THEIR LARGE
SYNOPTIC INCONSISTENCIES AND NOW SHOW THEIR MORE TYPICAL
SMALLER... BUT STILL IMPORTANT... TIMING/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES.
THE GFS/GEFS REMAIN THE ODD PAIR IN THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE MIX...
BEING MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THAN THE
LARGE CLUSTER THAT INCLUDES THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN AND THE
ECENS MEAN... WHICH LIES CLOSE TO WPC CONTINUITY... AND WAS THE
PREFERENCE TODAY.

THE FORECAST FEATURES TWO SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS AND THROUGH THE GULF WHILE THE APPROACHING DEEP
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE ARCTIC OCEAN. EVEN IN THE ECENS
MEAN... THE MODEL OF CHOICE... 500MB STANDARDIZED HEIGHT ANOMALIES
AND 850 TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HOVER IN THE -2 TO -2.5 RANGE BY
NEXT WEEKEND NEAR/OVER NW ALASKA. MUCH COOLER/COLDER AIR IS
POSSIBLE SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF THE STATE WITH
TYPICALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST AND PANHANDLE.


FRACASSO