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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1824Z Apr 22, 2015)
 
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

VALID 12Z SUN APR 26 2015 - 12Z THU APR 30 2015

TODAYS WPC ALASKAN MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE HAS BEEN PRIMARILY
DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE REASONABLY COMPATABLE 12 UTC GFS/00
UTC ECMWF ALONG WITH THE 00 UTC GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES VALID
DAY 4/SUNDAY INTO DAY 6/TUESDAY. THE NEWER 12 UTC ECMWF OFFERS A
SIMILAR SOLUTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ALSO PREFER AS PER
ANCHORAGE WFO COORDINATION TO TRANSITION TO A QUITE COMPATABLE 00
UTC GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE BASED FORECAST SOLUTION INTO DAYS
7/8 AMID GROWING DETERMINISTIC MODEL FORECAST SPREAD...BUT WITH
SOME FORECASTER APPLIED ADJUSTMENTS TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DEEPER
OCEANIC LOWS. OVERALL...THIS SOLUTION OFFERS GOOD WPC CONTINUITY.

A PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE FCST REMAINS THE ONGOING SERIES OF NRN
PAC/BERING SEA SYSTEMS FEEDING INTO NERN PAC MEAN TROUGH/UPR
LOW...PLUS PSBL NERN PAC SYSTEM INTERACTION. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FAVOR A PROLONGED PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODEST PCPN INTO
SRN/SERN ALASKA WITH DEEP CENTRAL GULF LOW WRAPPED MOISTURE.
DETAIL DIFFS ALOFT OVER THE MAINLAND DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE SFC PATTERN WHICH SHOULD REFLECT BROADLY
BENIGN CYCLONIC FLOW NEXT WEEK.

AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE BERING SEA SUNDAY AND
WORK ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL BERING MON BEFORE FEEDING SEWD INTO THE
LEAD GULF OF AK MAIN MEAN TROUGH. LATEST SOLNS STILL DISPLAY
GREATER SPREAD WITH MORE VARIATION IN TIMING AND EXTENT TO WHICH
THE SYSTEM MAY GET SHEARED AS FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY BECOMES MUCH
FLATTER OVER THE WRN 2/3 OF THE PACIFIC. THE PREFERRED WPC BLEND
MAINTAINS SOME ELEMENTS OF CONTINUITY AND ALLOWS FOR MODEST
ALEUTIAN PCPN POTENTIAL. GUIDANCE SHOWS YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
SYSTEM TRACKING INTO AND ACROSS THIS REGION NEXT TUE-THU...ALBEIT
WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY AT THIS LONGER TIME FRAME.

SCHICHTEL