Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1808Z Apr 08, 2015)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
View Alaska Map


ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
208 PM EDT WED APR 08 2015

VALID 12Z SUN APR 12 2015 - 12Z THU APR 16 2015

THE 8/00Z ECENS...NAEFS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5...THEN DEPART SIGNIFICANTLY---BUT WELL
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ALASKA FORECAST AREA ALONG 130W LONGITUDE.
BETWEEN DAY 6-7...THE GEFS---IN GENERAL---WERE THE STRONGER
SOLUTIONS OVER WESTERN ALASKA BETWEEN 150W-160W WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD FROM A PARENT LOW IN THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS...BUT NOT SO MUCH---AS TO TOTALLY DISCOUNT THAT OUTCOME
AS AN 'OUTLIER'. BOTTOM LINE...THE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE TAKING ON
A MORE AMPLIFIED CONFIGURATION IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
INTERIOR ALASKA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

WHAT WAS SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL---THE 8/06Z GFS AND 8/00Z ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC RUNS WERE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FLOW
PATTERN DURING THE DAY 4-7 PORTION OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS DO HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE (TRACK AND
INTENSITY)---WITH RESPECT TO--- THE DAY 7 SHORTWAVE PASSING INTO
THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA. BUT...WAS ABLE TO MAINTAIN GOOD
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS WPC SURFACE GRAPHICS HEADING INTO
15/12Z (DAY 7). EXPECT SOME ALTERATIONS IN THE DAY 8 (16/12Z) TIME
FRAME---BUT ONCE THE SURFACE LOW HAS BECOME INITIALIZED---SHOULD
GET REASONABLE STABILITY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE AND
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMITTED FROM ITS CORE CIRCULATION.

VOJTESAK