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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1925Z Jan 16, 2015)
 
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
225 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

VALID 12Z TUE JAN 20 2015 - 12Z SAT JAN 24 2015

TODAYS WPC ALASKAN MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500
MB PROGS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN
PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE 06 UTC GEFS MEAN...00 UTC
ECMWF/NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND WPC CONTINUITY. THE 00 UTC ECMWF
WAS PRETTY COMPATATBLE DAY 4 / TUESDAY AND WAS UTILIZED TO PROVIDE
BETTER DETAIL AFTER CONSULTATION WITH THE ANCHORAGE WFO. THE
ENSEMBLES  AGAIN SEEM MORE COMPATABLE AND RUN-RUN CONSISTENT THAN
DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE...AND AN ENSEMBLE BASED COMPOSITE
FIELD SEEM BEST FAVORED AS PER WPC/WFO COORDINATION. THIS
AMPLIFYING PATTERN OVER TIME SEEMS TO OFFERS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE FORECAST PREDICTABILITY CONSIDERING FORECAST SPREAD.

COOLING LEAD MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOSED TROUGHING LINGERS MORE THAN
YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE SHOWED NOW FROM THE ARCTIC INTO THE BERING
SEA/WRN AK THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MODEST FRONTAL PCPN
WORKING INLAND TO THE W-CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE. THIS
SYSTEM NUDGES A WARMER MID-UPPER RIDGE BUILT NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE INTERIOR.

FARTHER SOUTH...AN AMPLIFIED AND CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
LOW AND DEEP ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WITH HIGH WIND/WAVES PCPN THEN
GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOW BUMPS UNDERNEATH THE BLOCKING RIDGE. SYSTEM ENERGIES
SHOULD PROVE SLOW TO TRANSFER BOTH NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING SEA
AND EVEN NEWD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA...BUT FAVORS EMERGENCE OF
MORE DEEP LAYERED SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INLAND FROM WETTENED SW/SRN
AND SERN ALASKA.

SCHICHTEL