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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1803Z Aug 24, 2014)
 
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
203 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

VALID 12Z THU AUG 28 2014 - 12Z MON SEP 01 2014

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH DECENT
CONTINUITY ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER ALASKA DURING THE MEDIUM
RANGE. TROUGHING IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN ALONG 160W WITH
UPSTREAM RIDGING MORE OR LESS STATIONARY IN THE SEA OF OKHOTSK.
THE GEFS MEMBERS REMAIN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER IN THE RECENT
GUIDANCE... AND WERE AGAIN DISCOUNTED. THE ECENS MEAN HAS BEEN
MUCH MORE CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND AGAIN HAS THE SUPPORT OF
THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET WITH THE LEAD SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF THU-SAT/D4-6.

TO THE WEST... THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE
AS TO THE SPEED OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT TRAVERSES THE BERING SEA
AND HEADS TOWARD THE GULF VIA THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. OPTED FOR A
BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/ECENS MEAN BEFORE DROPPING THE
GFS BY SUN/D7 AS IT TAKES THE SFC LOW INTO INTERIOR ALASKA WHILE
THE GOING PREFERENCE HAS BEEN FOR THE TRIPLE POINT LOW TO SLIDE
EAST AND/OR REFORM NEAR KODIAK AND THEN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
00Z ECMWF SHOWS THIS BETTER BUT REMAINS QUICKER THAN ITS MEAN WITH
ADDITIONAL TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENT THAT PUSHES THE FRONT QUICKLY
EAST.

TO THE NORTH AND WEST... INCOMING UPPER LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO
BE ABOUT 2 STD DEV BELOW CLIMO /500MB HEIGHTS/ AND WILL EASE A
FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE INTERIOR.
12Z GFS MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH UPPER LOW CENTER TOWARD THE
BERING STRAIT THOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD BY NEXT WEEK.


FRACASSO