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Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1839Z Oct 09, 2014)
 
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ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 PM EDT THU OCT 09 2014

VALID 12Z MON OCT 13 2014 - 12Z FRI OCT 17 2014

THE ALASKA MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS CONTINUED WITH ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH OCTOBER 17TH.

THE HIGHLIGHTS WILL INCLUDE---A SERIES OF MIGRATORY NORTH PACIFIC
SYSTEMS TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT LOWER LATITUDES---INVOF
45-48N---TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE...ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

THE 9/00Z ECENS/GEFS MEAN WERE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
15/00Z...THEN DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE CONFIGURATION OF THE
FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN THE DATELINE AND EAST COAST OF ASIA.

AFTER DAY 5 (15/00Z)...BOTH MEANS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE BULK OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL HAVE MIGRATED INTO GULF WATERS...AND
ONLY THEN...WOULD THERE BE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THE WEATHER---IE
THE PERSISTENCE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

WHAT IS YET TO BE DETERMINED---HOW MUCH OF REMNANT 'VONGFONG'
MOISTURE AND ENERGY WORKS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
MID-NORTH PACIFIC JET STREAM? FOR NOW...FOLLOWING THE ECENS MEAN
WITH SOME ASPECTS OF THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WILL CAPTURE THE
MAJORITY OF THE WAVE ENERGY AND DISCERNIBLE ('TRACKABLE') SURFACE
WAVES FORMING ALONG THE JET STREAM AXIS. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED...BUT ITS BASELINE FORECAST SHOULD BE A
RELIABLE ONE HEADING THROUGH THE DAY 8 PERIOD.     

VOJTESAK