Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Air Quality
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1951Z Aug 28, 2014)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
View Alaska Map


ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
351 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VALID 12Z MON SEP 01 2014 - 12Z FRI SEP 05 2014

A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC VORTEX DESCENDS TO THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA
NEXT WEEK ALLOWING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
FROM THE ARCTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE INTERIOR. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS FOR MUCH OF ALASKA AS 500/700 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL
CENTER 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL NORTH OF THE ARCTIC
CIRCLE. THE PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW MODEST LINGERING IMPULSES AND
SURFACE DEVELOPMENT UNDERNEATH OVER THE ALASKAN SRN/SERN TIER BOTH
OVER/FROM THE GULF OF AK AND LATE WEEK UPSTREAM SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS.

MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FROM THE 12 UTC GFS AND 00 UTC ECMWF
AND 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SEEM TO CLUSTER PRETTY
WELL MON INTO TUE BEFORE INCREASING DETERMINISTIC FORECAST SPREAD
LENDS MORE OF AN ENSEMBLE MEAN BASED FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SEEM REASONABLY
COMPATABLE AND OFFER BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.

SCHICHTEL