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South American Synoptic Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1326Z Oct 16, 2014)
 
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SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
926 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM OCTOBER 16 AT 00UTC): A 200 HPA HIGH OVER
NORTHERN PERU EXTENDS A RIDGE WEST INTO THE EASTERN TROPICAL
PACIFIC...AND TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS BOLIVIA-PARAGUAY TO THE
SOUTHERN STATES OF BRASIL. THE RIDGE UNDERCUTS A TROUGH TO THE
EAST THAT EXTENDS ACROSS RIO DE JANEIRO-MATO GROSSO TO AMAZONAS IN
BRASIL. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS BUILDING BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
THE TROUGH...AFFECTING THE WESTERN STATES OF ACRE-AMAZONAS-PARA
AND RONDONIA. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY IS ALSO CLUSTERING INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF PERU AND SOUTHERN AMAZONIA IN COLOMBIA.

AT 250 HPA THE JET ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SOUTHERN POLAR WITH ENTRANCE
AT 49S 110W...ALONG 43S 105W...41S 96W...40S 87W...EXITING AT 41S
77W. THE NORTHERN POLAR HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 32S 97W...ALONG 34S
85W...A 140KT MAXIMUM AT 37S 71W...41S 61W...A 129KT MAXIMUM AT
42S 49W...38S 41W...EXITING AT 33S 31W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET LIES
ALONG 17S 124W...19S 115W...22S 98W...26S 82W...32S 65W...33S
49W... EXITING AT 27S 37W.

AT 500 HPA...A RIDGE LIES ALONG 118W TO 60S. EAST OF THIS
RIDGE...A TROUGH EXTENDS BETWEEN 110W-70W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 25S.
THIS IS FOCUSING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS SOUTHERN-CENTRAL CHILE
INTO ARGENTINA. INFLOW OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRIGGERED ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS URUGUAY AND ENTRE RIOS IN ARGENTINA. A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG 50W SEPARATES THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
FROM ANOTHER OVER THE ATLANTIC...AS THE LATTER EXTENDS BETWEEN
40W-05W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 25S.

AT LOW LEVELS...BROAD TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM LIES OFF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF CHILE INTO THE DRAKE PASSAGE/WEDDELL SEA.
EMBEDDED IN THIS AXIS...A POLAR FRONT EXTENDS ALONG A 986 HPA LOW
AT 60S 48W...57S 48W...56S 52W...57S 60W...60S 69W...A 986 HPA LOW
AT 60S 79W...57S 76W...55S 78W...53S 82W...A 994 HPA LOW AT 50S
84W...49S 80W...46S 80W...A 1006 HPA LOW AT 43S 82W...39S
82W...AND 38S 86W. THIS FAVORS ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CHILE. ANOTHER FRONT LIES TO THE
EAST...EXTENDING FROM AN OCCLUDED 1002 HPA LOW AT 50S 66W...ALONG
A 1002 HPA LOW AT 48S 61W...46S 60W...44S 62W...A 1002 HPA LOW AT
44S 65W...LA PAMPA-MENDOZA IN ARGENTINA...WEAKENING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION DEVELOPED ACROSS BUENOS
AIRES PROVINCE/CENTRAL ARGENTINA. AN OLD FRONT LIES TO THE EAST
AND NORTH...WITH AXIS ALONG A 1028 HPA LOW AT 32S 23W...29S
25W...25S 30W...23S 36W...26S 44W...RIO GRANDE DO SUL TO
CORRIENTES IN ARGENTINA...WHERE IT FAVORS ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION. A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CENTERS ON A 1025 HPA HIGH AT 32S
37W.

CAROCA...DMC (CHILE)
DURAN...SENAMHI (PERU)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)