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South American Synoptic Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1314Z Aug 08, 2014)
 
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SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
914 AM EDT FRI AUG 08 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

MODEL DISCUSSION (VALID FROM AUGUST 08 AT 00UTC): AT 200 HPA A
RIDGE EXTENDS WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTH
AMERICA...ENVELOPING CONTINENTAL AREA TO THE NORTH OF 10S. THIS IS
VENTING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS AMAZONAS-ACRE IN BRASIL TO SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA-EASTERN PERU. CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BRASIL...MEANWHILE...REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL
RIDGE/CAP INVERSION THAT CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION.

THE 250 HPA ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SOUTHERN POLAR WITH ENTRANCE AT 45S
105W...ALONG 50S 93W...54S 85W...58S 74W...54S 64W...A 144KT
MAXIMUM AT 50S 61W...EXITING AT 45S 54W. THE NORTHERN POLAR HAS
ITS ENTRANCE AT 28S 120W...ALONG A 130KT MAXIMUM AT 35S 108W...A
167KT MAXIMUM AT 45S 94W...51S 79W...49S 67W...A 125KT MAXIMUM AT
43S 60W...39S 57W...A 157KT MAXIMUM AT 37S 41W...A 148KT MAXIMUM
AT 40S 30W...AND A 141KT MAXIMUM AT 43S 21W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET
HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 17S 87W...ALONG 19S 80W...25S 69W...A 127KT
MAXIMUM AT 32S 50W...35S 31W...24S 15W...26S 07W...AND 35S 01W.

AT 500 HPA...A LOW NEAR 67S 95W ANCHORS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE BELLINGSHAUSEN SEA. THIS IS INTERACTING WITH A TROUGH TO THE
NORTH...AS THE LATTER EXTENDS FROM A LOW AT 54S 90W...ALONG 40S
110W...TO A LOW AT 33S 125W. AS THEY COMBINE THEY CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AT A VERY RAPID PACE...SUSTAINING EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS SOUTHERN CHILE/TIERRA DEL FUEGO. A SKEWED RIDGE LIES TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM A HIGH NEAR 23S 95W...
ALONG 40S 80W...SOUTHERN CHILE/PATAGONIA IN ARGENTINA...TO THE
WEDDELL SEA. THIS RIDGE UNDERCUTS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE
NORTH...AS IT EXTENDS FROM LA SERENA CHILE...ALONG 23S 82W...TO
15S 85W. FARTHER EAST...OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC...A BROAD TROUGH
EXTENDS BETWEEN 60W-30W TO 30S...WHILE A RIDGE TO THE NORTH
EXTENDS WEST ACROSS ESPIRITO SANTO/MINAS GERAIS TO EASTERN BOLIVIA.

AT LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE ON THE NORTHERN STREAM CENTERS ON A 1029
HPA HIGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 33S 86W. A POLAR TROUGH TO
THE SOUTH CENTERS ON AN OCCLUDED 956 HPA LOW AT 53S 90W...WITH A
POLAR FRONT ALONG A 968 HPA LOW AT 55S 88W....52S 81W...A 996 HPA
LOW AT 47S 83W...41S 93W...A 1014 HPA LOW AT 38S 98W...AND 29S
110W. THIS SUSTAINS SCATTERED RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN CHILE. OVER
THE ATLANTIC...AN OCCLUDED 982 HPA LOW AT 44S 33W EXTENDS A FRONT
ALONG A 988 HPA LOW AT 46S 33W...41S 31W...A 998 HPA LOW AT 39S
32W...31S 40W...A 1018 HPA LOW AT 29S 42W...26S 49W...A 1018 HPA
LOW AT 25S 54W...TO NORTHERN BOLIVIA. A POLAR RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
CENTERS ON A 1033 HPA HIGH AT 31S 64W. AN OLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
LIES ALONG A 1014 HPA LOW AT 25S 10W...19S 15W...15S 24W...TO
NORTHERN BAHIA/PERNAMBUCO IN BRASIL.

JALFIN...SMN (ARGENTINA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)