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South American Synoptic Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1306Z Sep 23, 2014)
 
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SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
906 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM SEPTEMBER 22 AT 00UTC): UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS A BROAD CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH AXIS ENVELOPING
CONTINENTAL AREA TO THE NORTH OF 30S...WHILE CENTERING AT 200 HPA
ON A CLOSED HIGH NEAR 10S 62W. THIS IS VENTING ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS BRASIL TO THE NORTH OF 10S...WITH OTHER ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN PERU/SOUTHERN COLOMBIA TO EASTERN ECUADOR.

AT 250 HPA...THE SOUTHERN POLAR HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 43S
109W...THEN ALONG 45S 98W...A 124KT MAXIMUM AT 43S 88W...EXITING
AT 39S 81W. IT REFORMS AT 39S 67W...ALONG 44S 60W...A 147KT
MAXIMUM AT 50S 45W...45S 34W...EXITING AT 40S 28W. THE NORTHERN
POLAR HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 39S 100W...THEN ALONG 38S 90W...EXITING
AT 31S 83W. IT REFORMS AT 28S 78W...THEN ALONG 33S 68W...39S
58W...41S 48W...EXITING AT 36S 36W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE
NORTH HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 17S 104W...ALONG 17S 96W...A 134KT
MAXIMUM AT 23S 83W...27S 67W...EXITING AT 27S 52W.

AT 500 HPA...BROAD TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDS ACROSS
THE BELLINGSHAUSEN SEA TO TIERRA DEL FUEGO. REVOLVING AROUND THIS
AXIS...A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING ACROSS 100W
WHILE CENTERING ON A CLOSED LOW NEAR 64S 101W. ANOTHER MOVED
ACROSS 85W WHILE CENTERING ON A LOW AT 48S 85W. AN ELONGATED
TROUGH TO THE NORTH EXTENDS FROM 50S 59W...ALONG 42S
60W...NORTHERN PATAGONIA/LA PAMPA IN ARGENTINA-CENTRAL CHILE...30S
77W...TO 20S 90W. THIS IS FOCUSING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS
CENTRAL CHILE AND ARGENTINA. A NORTH TO SOUTH RIDGE LIES TO THE
EAST...WITH AXIS ALONG 40W/45W TO THE WEDDELL SEA. A BROAD TROUGH
THEN EXTENDS BETWEEN 30W-05W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 30S...WITH AXIS
PHASING WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG 30W.

THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE FRONT ON THE SOUTHERN
STREAM ENTERING CHILE...AS IT ORIGINATES ON AN OCCLUDED 996 HPA
LOW AT 46S 83W...THEN ALONG A 990 HPA LOW AT 49S 79W...43S
78W...36S 84W...AND 37S 90W. THIS SUSTAINS SCATTERED RAINFALL OVER
SOUTHERN CHILE. AN ELONGATED FRONT TO THE EAST EXTENDS FROM AN
OCCLUDED 962 HPA LOW AT 66S 74W...ALONG A 976 HPA LOW AT 70S
75W...68S 68W...63S 64W...A 986 HPA LOW AT 61S 64W...59S 59W...56S
56W...A 998 HPA LOW AT 51S 57W...48S 49W...45S 50W...A 1010 HPA
LOW AT 43S 53W...BUENOS AIRES TO MENDOZA. THIS SUSTAIN COASTAL
CONVECTION OVER BUENOS AIRES PROVINCE. FARTHER EAST...AN ELONGATED
FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 38S 09W...29S 19W...27S 31W...27S 40W...TO RIO
GRANDE DO SUL. A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CENTERS ON A 1029 HPA HIGH AT
36S 40W AND A 1025 HPA HIGH AT 53S 38W. AN OLD FRONT TO THE EAST
AND NORTH LIES ALONG A 1014 HPA LOW AT 26S 21W...20S 26W...17S
33W...ESPIRITO SANTO-SOUTHERN MINAS GERAIS TO MATO GROSSO...WHERE
IT FAVORS SCATTERED CONVECTION.

JALFIN...SMN (ARGENTINA)
CAROCA...DMC (CHILE)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)