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South American Synoptic Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1312Z Sep 11, 2014)
 
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SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
912 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM SEPTEMBER 09 AT 00UTC): NORTH OVER THE
CONTINENT...AT 200 HPA...ILL ORGANIZED CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CONFINES TO THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC WHILE CENTERING ON
A CLOSED HIGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. AN OPEN
RIDGE OVER RORAIMA/AMAZONAS IN BRASIL SEPARATES THIS AXIS FROM AN
ELONGATED TROUGH TO THE EAST...AS THE LATTER EXTENDS ALONG 19S
40W...10S 50W...TO PARA. IN THIS PATTERN...DEEP TROPICAL
CONVECTION CONFINES TO AMAZONAS IN BRASIL-NORTHERN JUNGLE OF
PERU...WITH OTHER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH DOTTING THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA OF PERU.

THE 250 HPA JET ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SOUTHERN POLAR WITH AXIS ALONG
55S 120W...A 202KT MAXIMUM AT 56S 112W...60S 91W...55S 80W...
EXITING AT 47S 78W. IT REFORMS AT 41S 62W...ALONG 41S 51W...47S
38W...51S 30W...A 169KT MAXIMUM AT 52S 20W...EXITING AT 44S 02W.
THE NORTHERN POLAR LIES ALONG 51S 120W...55S 100W...55S 88W...48S
84W... A 144KT MAXIMUM AT 41S 90W...33S 93W...30S 86W...A 160KT
MAXIMUM AT 31S 80W...34S 70W...A 171KT MAXIMUM AT 34S 60W...35S
50W...A 151KT MAXIMUM AT 41S 38W...47S 23W...43S 10W..AND 33S 07W.
THE SUBTROPICAL JET HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 19S 120W...THEN ALONG 27S
105W...25S 87W...A 142KT MAXIMUM AT 27S 69W...29S 55W...33S
41W...EXITING AT 34S 35W.

AT 500 HPA...A SKEWED RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 40S 110W...ALONG 50S
90W...56S 80W TO THE DRAKE PASSAGE. A TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE EAST
OF THE RIDGE...WITH AXIS NORTH FROM THE BELLINGSHAUSEN
SEA....ALONG 55S 75W...TO 44S 83W. THIS IS INTERACTING WITH A
TROUGH TO NORTH...AS IT EXTENDS BETWEEN 100W-75W AND TO THE SOUTH
OF 20S WHILE CENTERING ON A LOW NEAR 25S 87W. FARTHER
EAST...ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS BETWEEN 60W-30W AND TO THE SOUTH OF
30S...CENTERING ON A LOW AT 51S 47W. A RIDGE TO THE NORTH EXTENDS
WEST FROM A HIGH AT 25S 43W TO PARAGUAY...AND TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG 27S 32W...40S 22W...TO 50S 20W.

AT LOW LEVELS...THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH ON THE
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC...ANCHORING ON AN
OCCLUDED 1010 HPA LOW AT 35S 88W...WITH A FRONT ALONG A 1014 HPA
TRIPLE POINT LOW AT 40S 86W...37S 83W...A 1008 HPA LOW AT 36S
84W...32S 81W...28S 87W...AND 27S 97W. A BROAD TROUGH DOMINATES
FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS IT CENTERS ON AN OCCLUDED 974
HPA LOW AT 51S 48W. THIS EXTENDS A FRONT ALONG 984 HPA OCCLUDED
LOW AT 51S 31W...A 992 HPA LOW AT 47S 22W...45S 26W...A 994 HPA
LOW AT 40S 33W...A 1006 HPA LOW AT 37S 38W...32S 43W...28S 51W...A
1008 HPA LOW AT 26S 53W... NORTHERN PARAGUAY TO SANTA CRUZ IN
EASTERN BOLIVIA. THIS SUSTAINS SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHERN BRASIL. A POLAR RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CENTERS ON A 1021 HPA
HIGH OVER CORDOBA IN ARGENTINA... WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST CENTERS ON A 1029 HPA HIGH AT 29S 17W.


JALFIN...SMN (ARGENTINA)
CAROCA...DMC (CHILE)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)