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South American Synoptic Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1350Z Jan 16, 2015)
 
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SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
850 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM JANUARY 16 AT 00UTC): AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...WITH AXIS AT 200 HPA...EXTENDS TO THE NORTHWEST
ALONG 20S 80W TO 10S 75W. THIS SUSTAINS A DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT
THAT IS VENTING ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL-SOUTHERN
PERU AND WESTERN BOLIVIA. A RIDGE TO THE EAST EXTENDS FROM ACRE IN
BRASIL...ACROSS BOLIVIA...A CLOSED HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST PARAGUAY...
SOUTHERN BRASIL...TO 30S 40W. THIS RIDGE SEPARATES THE FORMER FROM
ANOTHER TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE LATTER EXTENDS FROM A CLOSED LOW
AT 15S 50W TO NORTHERN PARA/RORAIMA IN BRASIL. THIS IS INTERACTING
WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BRASIL...ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH.

THE 250 HPA JET ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SOUTHERN POLAR WITH AXIS ALONG
70S 100W...61S 83W...53S 73W...53S 63W...A 124KT MAXIMUM AT 53S
57W...53S 43W...49S 34W...45S 24W...EXITING AT 51S 19W. THE
NORTHERN POLAR HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 41S 107W...THEN ALONG 47S
100W...51S 87W...49S 74W...47S 59W...EXITING AT 44S 42W. THE
SUBTROPICAL JET HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 33S 61W...ALONG 34S 47W...33S
39W...36S 29W...A 146KT MAXIMUM AT 40S 20W...44S 09W...AND 41S
01E.

AT 500 HPA...A RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTH FROM 37S 85W...ALONG 60S 90W TO
70S 100W. EAST OF THIS RIDGE...A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS BETWEEN
80W-20W TO 35S...WHILE ANCHORING ON A CLOSED LOW ON THE WEDDELL
SEA. SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS EMBED IN THIS FLOW...WITH ONE THAT
EXTENDS FROM A DEEPENING LOW NEAR 59S 53W TO TIERRA DEL
FUEGO/SOUTHERN PATAGONIA IN ARGENTINA. ANOTHER TO THE EAST EXTENDS
FROM A LOW AT 50S 20W...ALONG 40S 27W TO 38S 35W.

AT LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE ON THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC CENTERS ON A 1025 HPA HIGH AT 38S 87W. ANOTHER RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH CENTERS ON A 1017 HPA HIGH AT 59S 89W. EAST OVER THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC...A DEEP OCCLUDED 970 HPA LOW AT 59S 50W EXTENDS A
FROTN ALONG A 986 HPA LOW AT 55S 36W...49S 36W...49S 42W...A 978
HPA LOW AT 54S 46W...50S 49W...A 992 HPA LOW AT 50S 60W...TO
SOUTHERN PATAGONIA. THIS IS PHASING WITH A FRONT TO THE NORTH THAT
EXTENDS FROM A 1002 HPA LOW AT 46S 64W...ALONG 41S 65W...39S
70W...PUERTO MONTT...A 1010 HPA LOW AT 47S 75W...47S 83W...A 1014
HPA LOW AT 49S 89W...AND 44S 90W. THIS SUSTAINS SCATTERED RAINS
ACROSS SOUTHERN CHILE AND PORTIONS OF PATAGONIA. AN OLD/ELONGATED
FRONT TO THE NORTH LIES ALONG 34S 27W...29S 44W...SANTA
CATARINA...CORRIENTES ARGENTINA TO SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS BUILDING NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN
BRASIL TO PARAGUAY. A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CENTERS ON A 1021 HPA
HIGH AT 38S 42W.

ARREAGA...INAMHI (ECUADOR)
DURAN...SENAHMI (PERU)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)